Generally I view this stuff from the lens of trying to understand what various outcomes might mean for markets but I don't think it is very productive for a portfolio manager to be emotionally invested in election outcomes. I generally have preferences but don't feel the need to convince other people that my way is right as I think my friend might have been doing.
Every so often on Facebook I will post something political and often there will be dozens and dozens of comments with people arguing back and forth. The other night I posted that I thought the VP debate would be funny but that it was instead unwatchable and I mentioned my belief that Ryan is an odd pick strategically as he would seem to be an unlikely magnet for undecided voters. This drew 67 comments, very few of which were directed at me (which is fine) in which people from both sides tried to convince the other side their way was best.
So it is with attitudes about investing that I see in comments on my articles that get republished at Seeking Alpha (and to a lesser extent the originals posted on the blog) and articles from other writers at Seeking Alpha. The most tangible examples are various dividend strategies and indexing but there are plenty of others too. Occasionally people leave comments that Benjamin Graham's way is the only way to make money in the markets or they will say the same about Warren Buffett.
The only way to...is a ridiculous notion as people succeed in markets with every conceivable method. People make a killing speculating with options while others permanently impair their capital very quickly speculating on options. Sell you losers? What about you can't go wrong taking a profit? Obviously people have success with Graham-style value investing but there is plenty of success to be had with swing trading. Jack Bogle says we should index invest but there are plenty of active managers who add value.
I get a big kick out of Bogle because he is very clear about his beliefs on indexing yet he has regularly called important turning points for the equity markets.
Realistically most of us will only find one method that is right for us. Maybe for you it is value investing ala Graham while your neighbor is an indexer and your co-worker is a swing trader. It is important for people to figure out what type of investor they are and it is likely that some portion of reading that people do is focused on trying to learn a little more in order to refine their version of the method they gravitate to.
This blog is a look over my shoulder for anyone who cares to look but I have been very consistent in suggesting that people take little bits of process from various investors to create their own process.
8 comments:
Great observation. You are "preaching to the choir" of long term followers of your publishing efforts.
Being a zealot within a myopic investment scheme decreases the chance (and the opportunity) for a successful, risk managed portfolio. Luck eventually runs out.
T
One other thing. I am curious as to your thoughts on the almost-new IShares Frontier Market ETF.
It seems to me that a managed portfolio is a better way to go rather than passively indexing in volatile political regions lacking rule of law for investors.
T
T,
In my opinion the fund will be a collection of countries with different attributes, some of which probably are very attractive and some that are not.
This is why I prefer narrower funds that at least go to the country level.
No. The only way to successfully invest is to believe there is only one way to successfully invest.
Anyone who thinks they have "found the way" when it comes to investing. Remember the old notion about how real estate prices can only go up....?
Politics can bring out the passion in folks as well as the best and worst behaviors. It can be funny too but becomes rather less so when it is realized that the source of amusement is also the source of policy and law. Whatever.
Nice photo: the southern end of the South Kaibab Bridge, right?
Yes, that is the bridge across the Colorado from South Kaibab to Phantom although we are under the impression the name of it is Black Bridge.
Thought so. I've heard it called the Black Bridge too; not sure what its official name is, not that that really matters: however a body gets to the bottom of the gorge there isn't another bridge upstream or down for a very long way.
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