This appears to be the market we have right now, it was up on Friday just because and that was the same reason why it was down yesterday. I say this not to point out something new as it has been going on for a while but simply pointing out that this is what the market is giving us.
As a matter of investment philosophy this is an environment where I would rather try to shave off the peaks and troughs as the market seems intent on grinding around in the same range. The intent would be to go down less if the SPX goes back down to 1100 as we went up less as the market went from 1100 to 1200 the last time.
One relevant point I may not have conveyed adequately is that while I took defensive action consistent with how we always do it, I disclosed the various trades made along the way, and I do believe a recession is in the cards I do not believe the stock market action will be anywhere near as bad as late 2008/early 2009. We have been in the slogging through phase for a while and I think that will continue. A low from here of 900-1000 might sound terrible but it is obviously nowhere near SPX 666. The 900-1000 range is not meant to be a prediction so much as trying to have some expectation of worst case magnitude. Obviously I could be wrong and if we get to 900 or 700 then, as I have said before; however much defense we'll have taken by then we will wish we had more--human nature.
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7 comments:
That seems to be the question on everyone's mind - will we have another 2008. Up/down - it's always done that somewhat randomly .
Title reminds me of my high school senior english paper which I will totally recreate.
Homeless People.
Homeless people are homeless because they have no home.
Title reminds me of my high school senior english paper which I will totally recreate.
Homeless People
Homeless people are homeless because they have no home.
Erratic moves up and down always seem to precede a violent move up or down....Why do I have the feeling it will be down
Your article guy is now in prison for ponzi.
http://randomroger.blogspot.com/2008/08/blogger-comes-back.html
David Andrew Taylor's real name is David Helm Taylor and last week plead guilty to major financial crimes and is looking at 20 years.
http://wcca.wicourts.gov/caseDetails.do;jsessionid=4E65A0828B765DCD90FA5D97DD421A42.render6?caseNo=2009CF003344&countyNo=40&cacheId=&recordCount=0&offset=0&mode=details
http://www.cod.uscourts.gov/Documents/Judges/Calendars/2011-10-10/jlk.pdf
yikes!
WRT David Andrew Taylor, I just checked the linked documents and there is no mention that David Helm Taylor used an alias or a different middle name and the sentence was 12 months (already served) and two years probation. Looked like a rental car beef.
Based on what was available at the records site I see no reason to believe this is the missing Dismally; perhaps Anon 8:01PM has additional info?
Glad I followed the link to the old Random Roger post though since it reminded me of my last major real estate short: WCI Communities; a contrarian play that payed off very well.
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