This was a strange open. Everyone on the teevee was calling for the pop to fade. While I believe that a fade was obvious, I guess I am surprised we did fade because so many people called for it.
Sorry if that doesn't make sense but that so many people correctly predicted the fade is a surprise.
I sold one stock for large accounts right at the open.
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3 comments:
Roger,
it is incredible that around 6/20 talked about bloack swan event. This one (not yet over) was very much written on the wall. It was coming. The IPO on the internet stocks. Everyone was calling for SP 1400 and that was discounted. Yet, the internals of the market looked horrible, not the A7D line but other stats that I keep. In my personal private pension fund I send the switch to get totaly out of the market on the 7/20. I called last friday and luckely they did it on the 8/3. Italy is slow - too much beuracracy. I am on vacation, when I get back I will send a letter why the company took so long to execute my request. Unfortunately I did not get short, but I know on my operation there is a short coming that need to get corrected. I am very prudent but from Nov/2010 even as the market was going up there were problems. I did go along until may when I started to get bearish. What now. We need to see a bottoming phase to this market. Some people are calling that this is just a correction to a new high but I rather be safe and see a bottoming before comming.
I like the quote from Rothchild: invest when there is blood on the street even your owen blood.
Jeff from Milan Italy
isnt a bloach swan event by definition something you don't see coming?
Black swan is just a definition, like any other definition that is trying to convey a message. Black swan is an event that is very hard to predict, but it does not mean that sometimes one cannot tell it is coming. In this business, like Roger, one needs to have a plan and discipline. Roger uses 200dma. I make use of that but also use other mathematical tools. However, these tools are not infallible. Many people have talked about A/d line(advance decline line) this time it gave no warning. So one needs to use several tools and never is 100%. I think that with time, practice and experience one becomes more tuned with the market. I have been doing this since 2007 and learning every day.
Jeff from Milan, Italy
Sorry for the typoes
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