This article in the Wall Street Journal did not provide much in the way of numbers and while the process should start quickly, especially with the railway, I find this interesting and having potential at some point down the road.
The extent to which Greece has big problems has been documented all over the place. The situation is bad, will probably get worse, last a long time and we don't know if anything now on the table will actually work.That being said the country won't become a ghost town. People will still need to eat, use the phone and get prescriptions filled.
One thing about Greece that we have learned is that they import almost everything. This won't change, at least where staple items are concerned and these things that they must import will come via rails, seaports and airports.
Were these things to list tomorrow the top down factors would still scream, no, don't do it! I do not know when Greece will make sense again, maybe never but the people aren't leaving and they still need to import the food they eat and the medicine they take. If the time ever comes where this makes sense to look at then I would imagine it would be possible to see how the stuff gets there and choose accordingly; again, if the time ever comes.
I've mentioned other countries in a similar regard. Kazakhstan comes to mind as an example. It has vast resources and vast corruption. If resource demand and prices keep going up and the corruption can come down a notch or two then it becomes an appealing destination but if not then not.
It is useful to keep tabs on these sorts of things. I tend to pay attention to more countries than I invest in (never invested in Kazakhstan but have been following it for several years now) and occasionally it pays off. Obviously this will only be relevant for people willing to invest at the country level as opposed to relying on iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) for foreign exposure.
11 comments:
Corruption and unions that strike every time the wind changes direction. Not putting my money in Greece.
Don't know if you follow Mark Mobius, Roger, but his latest post at franklintempleton.com looks at Vietnam and Indonesia. Fairly cursory, but positive in both cases.
Hi ROger:
Looks like the 200 day looms.
Heve u found it more effective tp wait for the S&P to close 2 days above it to toss the SDS (as u do when buying) or do u sell SDS as soon as it breaks the 200 day to the upside (or near the close on day 1)?
Thanks for sharing. Jebb
THanks, Jed
5:19, the context is not buying Greece as we know it. It either changes or it doesn't.
Mobius has like Vietnam for a long time and has been talking about Indo, lately. That is a tougher one for me having been an OPEC producer but then becoming an oil importer instead.
Jed,
Waiting for the second day will be more effecitve sometimes but not other times. But really that is not the goal. The goal is avoiding the full brunt of down a lot should it occur not being precisely correct over some very short period of time. Yesterday the 200 DMA was in the mid 1105s and it will inch up a little today.
If it takes it back today and looks like it will be there very late in the day tomorrow I will take action.
I wrote a brief post on Greece a couple of months ago.
Then, I thought that the National Bank of Greece Preferred stock might be an appropriate idea, receiving a rich yield with upside security appreciation.
Perhaps my idea remains valid. Have not checked lately.
Regarding Mobius, he does frequent interviews and posts on line. I put him in the same box as Jim Rogers - always interesting. I admire both for being able to travel the world expensing all of their costs! What a neat life.
T
O/T--I'm with you, T. I think I should be Mobius's assistant. I'm always envious of photographers, too, who travel abroad to shoot doors and flowerboxes.
thanks for sharing your process roger
OT, but I just need to sound off. Just got notice from my son's health care insurance provider (high deductible private policy); his rate goes up 16% effective 1 July. OBTW, this is on top of a 10% increase last year. No claims, ever. Thanks Obama, you are doing a great job of bending the cost curve (up)!
Thanks for the post Roger..
Yes, we need to "buy Greece"
and invent a way to operate
autos on olive oil...or ouzo;-)
I buy Greece all the time: spanakopita, dolmades, Ouzo, and feta cheese. Just like their union and government workers, I am fat and happy. Well, they may not be happy with the austerity.
Anon 10:33. Rates have been increasing like that for many years prior to Obama being elected. Its an industry think not a democrat thing.
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