Friday, May 28, 2010
Why Do You Have To Use An ETF?
Early in the day yesterday Matt Hougan from IndexUniverse and Paul Justice from Morningstar were on CNBC to talk about ETFs that invest in Europe. Simon Hobbs seemed to ask most of the questions and apparently was feeling feisty. Matt seemed to favor Germany and the Nordics (I am a big fan of the Nordics myself) and (sarcasm alert) shockingly Paul went as broad as possible.
Then Simon asked what's the matter with stock picking, why does anyone need an ETF, why not just buy a stock? Then he asked if this line of questioning was heresy. Matt noted that many investors are not very comfortable picking stocks which is true and he also made a similar argument as I make for country selection which ETFs allow for.
Paul suggested the Vanguard European ETF (VGK) or the iShares EMU ETF (EZU). Paul also made a case for healthcare that seemed out of context to the interview. Matt laced into him for picking VGK and EZU because they take in the good and the bad.
The premise of the conversation seemed off to me. The question is not should people buy ETFs that invest in Europe. From the top down the first thing to decide whether or not to invest in Europe and then depending on that answer what is the best way to do it. If you do want in, are you most interested in a country, a sector or the whole thing? If you want the whole thing, this would make no sense to me but some folks must want something like VGK, you know what to buy; Paul just told you.
Anyone wanting to go narrower than the entire continent needs to figure if they want to add a country or part of a sector. Adding a country is easy for many countries but if you want to go narrower you may need to pick a stock. Some of the foreign sector funds (SPDR and iShares) might be heavy enough in Europe but you'd need to look for yourself. Sticking with the Nordics if you only want exposure to Norway, Finland (uses the euro) or Denmark, and there are reasons to look at these countries, then you need to pick a stock.
Another point from Simon that I have made repeatedly is that many indexes in Europe are very heavily weighted in banks; HELLO! Both VGK and EZU have more than 20% in financials and that is after the sector imploded.
I've been picking on Morningstar from the start of this site for their inability to understand the utility of ETFs and their bottoms up analysis (S&P does bottoms up analysis as well and that too is useless) and it appears that nothing has changed.
I become more and more convinced that the new decade will require narrower exposure in portfolios which is not a bold prediction as this was clearly the case in the last decade. ETFs make this possible up to a point. For those willing to take the step to individual stocks, all the better chance for the long term result you hope for.
Well I didn't start out intending this to be an anti-Morningstar rant but there you go.
Then Simon asked what's the matter with stock picking, why does anyone need an ETF, why not just buy a stock? Then he asked if this line of questioning was heresy. Matt noted that many investors are not very comfortable picking stocks which is true and he also made a similar argument as I make for country selection which ETFs allow for.
Paul suggested the Vanguard European ETF (VGK) or the iShares EMU ETF (EZU). Paul also made a case for healthcare that seemed out of context to the interview. Matt laced into him for picking VGK and EZU because they take in the good and the bad.
The premise of the conversation seemed off to me. The question is not should people buy ETFs that invest in Europe. From the top down the first thing to decide whether or not to invest in Europe and then depending on that answer what is the best way to do it. If you do want in, are you most interested in a country, a sector or the whole thing? If you want the whole thing, this would make no sense to me but some folks must want something like VGK, you know what to buy; Paul just told you.
Anyone wanting to go narrower than the entire continent needs to figure if they want to add a country or part of a sector. Adding a country is easy for many countries but if you want to go narrower you may need to pick a stock. Some of the foreign sector funds (SPDR and iShares) might be heavy enough in Europe but you'd need to look for yourself. Sticking with the Nordics if you only want exposure to Norway, Finland (uses the euro) or Denmark, and there are reasons to look at these countries, then you need to pick a stock.
Another point from Simon that I have made repeatedly is that many indexes in Europe are very heavily weighted in banks; HELLO! Both VGK and EZU have more than 20% in financials and that is after the sector imploded.
I've been picking on Morningstar from the start of this site for their inability to understand the utility of ETFs and their bottoms up analysis (S&P does bottoms up analysis as well and that too is useless) and it appears that nothing has changed.
I become more and more convinced that the new decade will require narrower exposure in portfolios which is not a bold prediction as this was clearly the case in the last decade. ETFs make this possible up to a point. For those willing to take the step to individual stocks, all the better chance for the long term result you hope for.
Well I didn't start out intending this to be an anti-Morningstar rant but there you go.
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9 comments:
Mike C
I do not look at one indicator and some of the data I look at is proprietary so I can not post it here. The one advantage to just using the 200 dma is it is a very clear clean signal. When basing your opinion on multiple sources of data there is always going to be some judgment involved.
I do not like picking various S&P levels as make or break trigger points on the up or down side like the Fibonacci numbers others like. They are interesting, but they are not overly useful to me.
You are right that if it goes to your 870 level I would be wrong about this being a correction in a bull market, but I am saying I do not believe that will happen.
Is the correction over? I do not know if we will get another retest or lower low before we resume the up trend. I do not try to get every zig and zag of the market as I do not think it is possible in the long run, or useful. Focusing to much on the near term has never been beneficial to me.
I like to buy or sell for market moves that look to be 20+% over long periods of time (many months or preferably a few years).
The bottoms are easier to predict than the tops. It is not unusual to have several scary corrections prior to a top and always difficult to say this one is a correction versus a top, but that is what you have to do if you are not a buy and hold investor. I am simply saying this looks like a correction IMO. I do base it on lots and lots of data, but the indicators shift from time to time and yes there is some judgment involved.
SEG
BTW, there is a lot of fear considering the S&P is off 1.3% ytd.
Roger, good morning.
Rob Arnott is getting a lot of accolades in an article on the cnn site for his "near revolutionary" approach to fundamental indexing. Results so far seem to validate his approach.
I know you're not an indexer, but I'd value your opinion on whether you think that's a better way to construct an etf.
Many thanks.
from the peak PRF is down 22% versus 29% for the S&P 500.since inception PRF is down 2% versus a drop of 13% for the S&P 500. For an apples to apples that seems very good. However from peak to trough PRF did slightly worse dropping 60% versus 55%.
In that light I think this becomes an eye of the holder question if the portfolio will not seek defensive action.
Previous post was unnecessarily aggressive.
SEG, presuming you are Anon 6:33. Though you disagree with the sentiment, surely you can see why people might be a bit fearful even given your choice of time reference for technical analysis?
I understand that people may be fearful and I was poster 6:33, but fear and greed are powerful forces that cloud our judgment.
I am simply presenting my assessment of things. Anyone and everyone can be right or wrong from time to time, but no one can paint me as a perma bear or perma bull. I sold 99% of my portfolio in 2007.
I just do not see anything more than a correction here based on everything I look at so far. Corrections are rather common.
If things change than so will my assessment. I know the last bear has scared a lot of people, but over reacting is not the solution in my mind.
I probably have lost more than most on this blog this year. I'm down about 5.5% and I was likely up 8 +/- before we fell out of bed a few weeks ago. If you think I like losing money you would be wrong. We can not predict every twist and turn and must learn to live with volatility and our fears.
SEG
SEG: Firstly I am not questioning your conclusion nor your process. Your knowledge of the markets far exceeds mine.
I don't think you enjoy losing money. Heck who does?
The only thing I was questioning is the statement limited to your 6:33am posting.
I wouldn't be surprised if this correction goes a bit lower, but I think it would be extremely, extremely surprising if we got back to Dow 7k before testing Dow 14k. Historically speaking, I think it is just far to soon in this market cycle to hit the lows again.
If I had to lock in and choose to be either long or short the market for the next year I would choose long. Thankfully I have more options though ;-)
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