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16 comments:
Don't worry Roger Social Security will be there for illegal immigrants. We will send the payments back to their home country and we will not even stop paying them decades after they die.
Roger,
Tad off topic here however I was curious if you ever purchased individual TIPs or if you prefer an ETF such as IPE or TIP?
Yes. Paraphrasing my previous agreement (before getting sidetracked) from the other thread, there are assumptions that (1) can harm, (2) prove beneficial and (3) don't make much difference. The assumption that cash flow from a source one cannot control (like SS) should be given zero NPV for planning purposes probably belongs in the second or third set and not in the first.
The assumption that relinquishing claim to the Walker VFD throne is unlikely to be a career breaker probably also belongs in the latter two sets but I’ll be watching the Prescott news in case the loss of neighborhood amity leads to feuding and gun play; I will of course exercise healthy skepticism regarding any lurid or unconfirmed facts trotted out in media (that comes under sets 2 and 3 also).
Roger,
I currently have about 15% of my portfolio in these sectors. Do you agree with this guy or have any opinion on his assessment? My reason for investing in energy and materials is that I also felt that they would be one of the leading sectors coming out. Tech also seems to be a good play because of strong balance sheets for most of the big tech Co.'s. Thank you in advance for any insights.
bwjr
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30763410
I was playing with the Wolfram/ ALpha site and found the correlation and optimization routines pretty cool. Do you use any tools based on Ramdom walks for your allocations I read you close to daily and understand your philosophy and have learned alot. Thanks for allowing me to look over your shoulder. I will try not to ask for any free fish, just process advise.
Sam
Roger, today's overview of your style is one of your best so far. NO stress--really?! That's something we all aspire to. Thanks for sharing your secret for happy living.
back from a long fire training--driver test.
many clients own TIP.
RW we are not quite to the point of gunplay but may not be that far either,
re the sector question i look at each sector and decide based on a combo of how things tend to work and what I believe is currently going on in the world whther to underweight, overweight or equalweight the ten sectors.
i am mostly underweight until the SPX takes back its 200 DMA.
Sam, sorry I don't really do much there. i think (maybe unfairly) that certain tools cause people to miss the forest for the trees.
AAlan, its not like i'm hopped up on feel-good juice but we all know that every so often stocks go down a lot. if you know it is coming then there is probably no need to worry.
I still get impatient in traffic and certain celtics and red sox games are difficult to watch but where the market is concerned we know what is coming at some point.
So many people were concerned about the SPX going to 600 or 500 or whatever. My response to that was OK it goes to 500 (or whatever), then what? It works high at some pace (fast or slow). Same thing if the bottom had been some other number (or maybe the bottom still lies ahead of us).
But after the bottom, whenever that is it goes back up. The rate it goes back up might be too slow, that is a different issue. We know that after a big drop there is a bottom and some sort of rebuild.
Do you know any IFA avisors, Roger? If you drink the indexing Kool-Aid, I would think those folks would be the least stressed of anyone in your industry. Heck, with Nobel Prize winners, decades of data, and a mechanical system to connect the dots for you, there's no need to even entertain the range of scenerios that you outline. If you drink the Kool-Aid, that is.
do you mean DFA?
I get a chacne to speak to a few people here and there. Anecdotally the bear market has caused quite a few "indexers," so not necessarily DFA people, are re-examining how they run their businesses.
Roger- what do you use for small cap domestic and international exposure?
individual stocks
Roger, I've been following you for some time and like what I'm reading when I understand it. I'm not an investment pro but have been playing at investing for a long time.
I've always figured that I wouldn't get Social Security (I'm 60). Not because I can see the future but because it's a political football. Now it seems I may get it but I wouldn't be surprised if it is taxed to nothing since I've got a fairly large IRA.
What you say about living within your means is fantastic! I'm a real believer. My wife and I both worked for large corporations; always owned a home either of us could afford; and retired at fifty.
Now we live in Nevada. There is a gunfighter's club in town; do you need hired guns? (LOL I hope!)
Roger I would love to hear your take on this article regarding social security and medicare...
http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2009/05/truth-behind-social-security-and.html
Roger, I really like your comments but I think you do a disservice by suggesting social security will not be around. There is not a reason on this planet that it cannot survive. All it needs is appropriate tweaking which will surely come in due time.
Having said that, if one lives within his means and works diligently, saves and invests wisely etc etc, SS should represent nothing more than "walk around" money when one retires.
All it needs is appropriate tweaking which will surely come in due time.you're betting on that horse are you?
re the Robert Reich post. I disagree with his 3% growth idea. We are becoming more bloated and slower moving. I can't envision where more aggressive growth assumptions are the right answer.
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