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15 comments:
Grantham has remarkable insight IMO, although I think this bull could last longer than he thinks.
Inevitably Roubini (an optimist in retrospect) and Grantham will be right and we will see a new down turn. New lows are harder to predict if they can ignite some inflation and I now put nothing past the idiots in charge (as opposed to the idiots voted out of office).
My best guess is we do see new lows but not this year.
So my take is Grantham is very bullish medium term and rather bearish very long term. He essentially says someone 55 will likely not see inflation adjusted new highs in the S&P the way I read it and I fear he may be correct.
Who knows what next week will bring?...thought you might like
to read this article. thanx Roger
http://tinyurl.com/pt6cea
It is amazing what a 31% increase in my portfolio since end of February will do for your perspective.
I guess we are due for a pull back.
Roger,
I find it a little odd that on the one hand you say that "people tend to erroneously extrapolate the current trend into the future", while on the other hand you strongly believe in using the 200-DMA to adjust equity exposure. After all, selling equities when the S&P falls below the 200-DMA and buying them when it rises back above the 200-DMA is really nothing more than a trendfollowing strategy. Said another way, your strategy of "selling when demand for equities is poor" and "buying when demand for equities is healthy" only works when the current trend is a good approximation of what's coming in the future. Am I missing something?
-AAG
AAG, the difference i am trying to express is preplanning versus reacting to the market like hey its up a lot lets buy!the reason why i use the 200 DMA is how it has done in other bear markets and then in this one.
Roger,
What is your reason for using SDS as compared to say FAZ. What is more beneficial for you to use SDS than FAZ and is there a time that you should use one over the other.
Thanks,
bwjr
roger,
Have you ever read any of this guys stuff, if so what is your opinion?
bwjr
http://erikmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/05/us-dollar-gold-oil-may-11-15.html
the daily reset for the triple levered is more difficult to manage
Roger,
Currently my investment strategy utilizes a 50.200 DMA cross over method. When SP500 goes down a lot (over 30%) then it’s safer to buy 50 day moving average and pretty safe to buy at 200 MA.
So this is what I’m doing:
When SP500 crossed 50 MA (about 790) I increased my stock % to 50%.
When SP500 crosses 200 MA (about 954-5) I will increase it to 80%.
On a regular basis I practice EMA 50/20
When 50 is over 200 I have 80% in stock mutual funds.
When 50 is below 200 I have 30% in stock mutual funds.
For me EMA 50/200 was never all or none.
If I practiced B&H I would be at 50/50 stocks/bonds but EMA 50/200 allow me to move from 30% to 80% stocks. Any comments appreciated.
can't say much that is specific, but i believe generally in the idea of trying to avoid the full brunt of down a lot.
no strategy in this context can be the best for every event but i believe pro activity in this area is very important.
What is your opinion using SRS?
The sucker rally continues.
http://tinyurl.com/o7dvsp
Roger, Do you ever make 5%+ changes to your allocations? Seems like you always talk about a tweek here and there.
in normal accounts most individual stocks are 2% or 3%. Rarely 1% or 4%.
We're following the 1930's market almost to a technical key (and by the way, we are making similiar mistakes). We'll probably see a few years of the market inch higher, then a fast drop to the DOW 3000 level. I've been predicting this graph over the last 3 years and is is holding up...of course, this is luck on my part!
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