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Saturday, April 18, 2009
The Big Picture for the Week of April 19, 2009
The CNBC video I reference in my video is posted down below.
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The CNBC video I reference in my video is posted down below.
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17 comments:
Roger, you're going to prolong the recession with your sound advice. People should be encouraged to spend, spend, SPEND. Please encourage more reckless in your next video :)
Roger: The one participant in the 401k debate was, as you mentioned, Dan Solin. He has written several books on investment and writes a weekly column for the Business section of Huffington Post. He is a Bogle-type advisor who regulary debunks the track records of the financial advice "experts" and counsels indexing for individual investors.
Roger,
Came across this article at Index Universe. Serrepere is forecasting a bear rally zone to the 850-950 level and potentially up to 1087.
http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/features/5699-too-much-fluff.html
Zero Hedge had an excellent post advocating the possibility of gov't manipulation driving the market higher.
Anon 6:17am.
Thxs for the link. I found the following interesting but seems to be anyone's guess?
Serrapere Quote: We are in a secular bear that recently began a cyclical bull. The S&P is probably (not certain) going to correct back to 835 - 840 and then stocks are going to:
-retest the March 2009 and November 2008 lows by trading down into the 667-741 range and then enter a secular bull market after a couple of years of successfully retesting prices near 741,
-rally to near 1100, fail and then successfully retest 741-839 (the October 2008 low) over the next few years and then enter a new bull market, or
-fail in the 850-950 zone over the next few weeks and then set new lows below 667
It sounds like this guy has covered most of his basis, so how can he be wrong. I will read his stuff, but in my mind the jury is out on his forecast.
5:49 my wife is ready willing and able to take up the charge.
Jim L, Solin started going down that road before they jumped on him. the point is valid, i obviously believe differently but it is important to understand where Solin et al are coming from.
I think the Serapere articles are well worth the time.
thanks for all you do Roger...
you mentioned that you like
questions....well, I have a few.
What would I look for to know
when to sell JNK? Also, when
do we know it is time to buy TBT?
My head hurts from information
overload over the past few weeks..
maybe you can help.
I was wrong in the fall when I reinvested, but I still think this cyclical bull will keep on surprising people for longer than might be expected. Possibly much longer than expected.
If they keep printing money, and I think they will, the cyclical bull will simply look like a bull market and it will not end until everyone is back in the market.
Want to predict the market....predict earnings. When one speaks of the market what are they speaking about:Dow components. What are predictable earnings? What Dow stocks will push the index higher? If you can't answer that question then the rest is BULL. Just a few Dow stocks can push the index higher and the Dow is NOT the market!! What may be good for the goose may not be good for the gander!! Ex: Housing stocks are moving up on 'hope'.( Look for manipulation there!)
Now look at the Geo-political situation. If you never believed it before believe it now: We have a rogue government....that is thriving on manipulation and fraud. It is builing a wall around itself....that, to me, is utterly transparent. It is all smoke and mirrors. The recession is here to stay...ask any homeowner trying to sell.
My 401K sucks. It is run by Fidelity.
I am stuck with tha 401K. I am not stuck with Fidelity, meaning I will never, never, NEVER buy anything from Fidelity outside of that sucky 401K.
I think 401K in general has perverse incentives. The comapny running the 401K will make money from their fees no matter what. The company that hires a 401K manager has an incentive to find the least expensive to them.
The participants pay the fees and take all the risk of the investments without having anything to say about the fees or the suitibility of the investments.
They are the bag holders.
Fboness,
i've looked at more that a couple of 401k plans run through Fido both good and bad in terms of choices available. Unless there is something unique about your company's plan it sucking or not is sole a function of the person at your company in HR whose job it is to set it up and then maintain.
Looks like this wave chart confirms Serrapere's estimate of perhaps a move to approximately 1,100?
http://i40.tinypic.com/awsrqb.jpg
bulls 105 random's celtics 103
too bad, so sad...
nice sportsmanship.
Roger - at the end you conflate the macro-level personal savings rate as computed by the BEA (I'm fairly certain that's what Roach was refering to) with personal savings goals for working-age people. They are different. A 8-10% personal savings rate would be a good number at the macro level.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PSAVERT
I had a Vanguard Simple IRA for a very brief tenure at a company; therefore, only $1000 went into the fund. Vanguard took $25 fees three times over the two years before I could convert it - 3.75% per year on top of the index fund's ER.
So it was Vanguard taking 7.5% of that IRA for themselves. They wouldn't waive the fees.
I had a Fidelity 401K thru my employer for many years...no
problem. People did complain that
you could only purchase shares of
Fidelity funds so some Vanguard
funds were added...there was a nice
balance. It also included a stated return fund thru Cigna insurance.
About 5 years ago a brokerage option was added also. If you are unhappy with your 401K options
unite and contact the people resonsible. OMO
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