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9 comments:
Hey Roger, I have a naive question. Do you know how the 50day and 200 day timeframes came into favor for trend analysis? Assuming 20 trading days in a month, it seems more logical to look at 60 days, given quarterly reporting for stocks and mutual funds. Likewise, 200 days is short of an annual window.
No big deal, but I'm sure I'm missing something here. Thanks.
Has anyone ever blown up going long-term long with a diversified portfolio? More than -60%, I mean.
Glad you're no higher than C/D list, Roger. I'd probably think less of you if that were the case.
6:15, I've never thought about that. 200 DMA works for my purposes so I stick to it.
6:24, it would be difficult for a properly diversified equity portfolio to drop that much unless the stock market did something similar. I suppose it could happen with some really bad luck in stock picking but in a 30% decline the odds have having names that do so much worse as to cause the portfolio to go down 60% seems unlikely.
However a 60% decline in a down 50% world is not a stretch, just a little bad luck, IMO.
selling naked puts is the sure fire way to a "black swan event". Everybody that blew up their account selling naked puts claimed in hindsight that this was a "six sigma" events...
So many individuals and funds blow up in six sigma events you'd think they happen every day :)
people that have not blown up yet will patiently defend it, and then one day they blow up and just disappear and whom ever followed their advice is left with their own losses to deal with.
i think you look much more relaxed in your videos than you do on CNBC. maybe it is the suit.
...or just not wanting to say something wildly stupid, lol.
Selling a put or two is not a big deal, but blowing up invariably comes back to misuse of leverage.
Hello Roger,
Did you see that Claymore is introducing a new ETF which tracks the Standard & Poor's Commodity Trends Indicator?
Rob from WI
yeah I saw that, the third wrapper on the same index, there is an ETN and at least one OEF tracking that index.
Roger,
Its my understanding that although the 50/200 dmas are probably the most followed, there's nothing intrinsically magical about those particular averages. As I understand it, traders (day traders and other very short term traders) look at price vs. the 10dma. Guess it all depends on what one is trying to accomplish.
On the Seeking Alpha segment, maybe its just me, but having been a reader for about 2 years, I've noticed a marked drop off in the quality of the content. It seems (to me, at least) that in the past, the number of good/valuable/interesting pieces vastly outnumbered the crap....now, the reverse seems to be true. I have a VERY "short list" of authors I find knowledgable, and typically, I'll scroll quickly down the list and read their stuff first, and then, if time permits, I'll go back and poke around to see what else is of value.
Jan
i think maybe it is that a wider net has been cast. I am finding more people that i do want to read over there so that probably means there are more to avoid.
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