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6 comments:
Thank you Roger
This was one very staightforward post.
By the way - talk about upstaging :)
Dromedarius
Great post Roger !! :) That one was particularly clear!!!!
Thanks for that Roger, the tide had to turn at some point (these things don't go up in straight lines) as we've had a sharp rally since the March lows and your moving average was a nice point for traders to bounce off.
Looking at the previous bear market we slipped through that average pretty easily at the end of it but bounced off it several times on the way down.
I assume you mean a 'normal' bear market as one not as savage as 2000-3 (with a caveat that anything is possible). I've been looking for previous bears and they seem to be shorter and less painful. I think p/e ratios are much lower than in 2000. I still have some exposure in equities and I'm keeping up the research to make sure these are in the better performing sectors/funds. Good strategy? Thanks.
Oh you addressed that question in your video, my bad.
A BBC analyst has argued the rise in commodity prices is mostly due to the enormous amounts of money that index & hedge funds have brought into the market in the last 8 or 9 months & that, while the price for commodities is set on the Chicago market most all of the trade takes place in the over-the- counter market & claim these sets of funds are playing off one another to create a bubble that will burst in the next few months. If true & common sense says one should haver some exposure to commodities, how do you do that and not loose when the bubble goes? Is that a sensible question?
Willy
& claim these sets of funds are playing off one another to create a bubble that will burst in the next few months
if that is right, and I don't believe it is, then it could only be one factor of several factors moving prices. supply and demand has always mattered--you either believe China, India and other are changing demand (I do believe this) or you don't, speculators are either more interested now because the price action has been hot (I think this plays some role but do not know how much) and at any given time there can be external factors, politics in Nigeria, weather in australia and so on.
the importance of all of these ebbs and flows as does investor interest. right now interest is high.
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