In Memory of Kramer
September 15, 1992-May 16, 2008
Joellyn and I adopted Kramer in December 1992. She was a great dog who logged many a 9 mile hike with us (she went 12 once). One great story; for a short time we had a chihuahua named Tootie and Kramer hated Tootie when we first brought Tootie home. However in the first two weeks we had Tootie she got out twice (she squeezed through an envelope sized opening in the pen and was out in the woods) and both times Kramer, despite hating Tootie, came and got me to warn me something was wrong and I found Tootie both times.
No video this week. I'm going to repost a comment I left yesterday (tidied up a bit) about this article from Morningstar picking five funds for the next 15 years.
Five funds for 15 years is a ludicrous concept. The way in which people skim articles they might get the impression you can buy these funds for that long without doing follow up over time.
They like several funds for the manager. I am in no way taking a shot at any of the managers but a lot can happen to a manager in five years.
Remember Foster Freiss, Alberto Vilar, Bill Miller and the guy who liked Senetek, symbol STNKY, like stinky, Heiko Thieme. Five years is a long time in this context and they are going out 15 years.
This sort of thing is a total disservice. Aside from 15 years being a long time to expect someone with years of successful track record behind them to stick around the only forward looking analysis you can do is to simply say yeah I think this guy will keep doing a good job which is of course no analysis, it is a leap of faith.
No doubt that the track of these guys justifies a leap of faith but there could not have been any analysis done to tell you to buy these funds for 15 years.
15 comments:
Condolences on your pup's passing, Roger. Having gone through that several times, I can appreciate how heart wrenching it is. She lived a long life; maybe I'd better go hiking this morning!
Roger--I'm truly sorry about your and your wife's loss.
I create a worksheet on the sector information that WSJ provides. Perhaps your readers will find it useful. It can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/4ea3bu
This is an excel spreadsheet with several tabs. If you do not have excel, you can download an excel viewer.
There are no harmful viruses in it (and regulars know that I've posted here for some time off and on). Also, I cannot see who accesses this spreadsheet--so your anonymity is not compromised.
I post an updated version weekly and put the link on a permanent tab on my blog which you can get to by clicking on my name.
I found the content of the article pretty even-handed, pointing out the funds investing style, manager tenure/track record, etc; the title was chosen to pull in average folks who don't know much about investing and would love a short magazine article to solve their investing dilemma. Pretty harmless. A much worse article would have been one with a title like "A safe, even-handed investment portfolio for the next 15 years", and then have the funds selected be all BRIC funds.
Roger ... my sympathies to you and your wife, as well as to your other doggies. They too know that "something's just not right". My husband and I also have gone through the terrible sadness of losing a canine family member. I think I'll follow the first commenter's suggestion and take a hike today in honor of Kramer!
Roger, I'm very sad that you lost a beloved family member...I hope
your other members will be able to comfort you. Dogs are wonderful
..loyal etc....they even love us
if we lose all our money in the stock market:-)
Roger,
You should take comfort knowing that ALL dogs go to heaven. You will likely see him again someday.
Classic! Morningstar is picking 5 funds based on......past performance.
I wonder how those tech funds are holding up that Morningstar recommended to "hold for the next 10 years" in 2000 based on the their past 10 year track record? That included 1000%+ decade long returns for CSCO, EMC, JNPR, BRCM, MSFT etc.
Where is Alberto when we need him?
Sorry about your dog. Any plan to get another?
Many apologies. A reader dropped a note asking about the PM's (thanks Larry!). In following up I realize that I had failed to update all of the periods. I shouldn't update this spreadsheet while I'm still drinking coffee! Here's the updated one http://www.box.net/shared/static/eaackyi4kg.xls
Sorry for your loss, Roger.
I think the article has an audience, just no one who posts on blogs like this! A year ago I would have read the article and possibly acted upon it. I hadn't a clue where to look for league tables, financial blogs or investors' websites - I wouldn't have seen that article unless it was in a national daily.
And I've seen much, much worse, for example The Times advocating spread betting here; http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/article3547209.ece
Still, it's pretty poor advice to tell the average punter to stick all their savings in 5 funds on one day and leave them there for 15 years. No drip feeding or research? Sheesh.
Leisa,
I have been using Google docs for spreadsheets on my blog with great success.
You can publish the spreadsheet and it will auto update when you make changes without needing to repost or for users to download (or re-download). no need for Excel nor the viewer either.
One of features i use most is Google Finance to insert 20 minute delayed, self-updating, quotes into the spreadsheet. I then use formulas based on those quotes.
pretty nifty.
Roger, I am sorry for you and your wife about the loss of your faithful pet dog of many years. We have gone thru similar with two dogs and three cats, now have one dog and three cats, including our daughter's cat, four.
I agree with a post on Marketwatch today about an upcoming correction in July. Keeping one's powder dry is pretty unsexy, but getting in late is a sucker's game and I'm _not going to do it_. I got my fingers burned plenty of times over the last 10 months and that's enough. I don't mind losing small change and I can tolerate losing the opportunity to make big bucks, but not vice versa. I discovered your columns a few weeks ago and I find them useful and like your style. Keep it up. Thanks.
Born2Code--Thanks for the tip on Google Spreadsheets. I've been an Excel user for too many years. Google Spreadsheets are different enough where I find it frustrating. I've still never recovered from moving from 123 to Excel. Youngsters probably don't even know what I'm talking about!
I have to copy and paste the information anyway, so uploading is no big deal (except I omitted a rather large part of that when I posted my first spreadhseet).
I'll drop by your blog and take a look. thanks again.
Roger, sorry for your loss, people who aren't dog people sometimes don't understand just how much a dog becomes a part of the family, just like a human member.
Roger,
So sorry for your loss. May good memories of your "pup" stay with you forever.
Roger, condolences on your pup's passing.
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