I put up a similar chart to this one twice before in the last couple of months. The other two times I just used the green line. On this one I have drawn in two other trend lines I think I see plus I included the 200 DMA.First things first the 200 DMA is up near 1490 versus a close yesterday of 1416. I view the 200 DMA as a line of demarcation for healthy demand or unhealthy demand so we are a long way from healthy.
The green line seems like it has been more important since the peak than the 200 DMA. The orange line, which may not be important, seems to isolate smaller congestion points that, if relevant, would imply some resistance up near 1450. And lastly as I read the purple line, if that one matters, I think it says we stopped at resistance at the close yesterday it could serve as support if we close above it which seems unlikely for now thanks to the Citi fallout.
There are many ways to look at the same chart and perhaps it would be better to look at a longer term chart than just one year but I would not be surprised if we went up to some of those higher numbers before doing anything else.
I am still in the bear market camp and I think the chart sends the same message about this as it did when I posted it previously but even if I turn out to be right about a bear market there will be stretches where the market goes up and people start feeling better. This is what it means to rollover slowly as I always say is the manner in which bear markets start.
If I am wrong that a bear market has started, when one really does start it will rollover slowly and have feel good rallies as it does rollover. Trying to trade around this sort of thing (buy the strength and sell the weakness) is likely to go poorly for most folks. I actually sold a discretionary name at the open that most, but not all, clients owned--so it was a case of selling the strength. To be clear though the stock is way off its high like most discretionary stocks.
On a personal note a friend of ours is going through a very rough medical issue and so as he is in our thoughts I will say I hope you exercise a lot, don't smoke and (here's one you don't hear often) don't drink soda. Not that I have researched this but I think the number of people that create long term problems for themselves because of soda consumption will end up being more than with cigarettes as this century moves on--just my own opinion.
21 comments:
Just an oposite view -
http://www.futuresboard.com/?ab=board&forum=1&board=2&thread=3616
My kids don't know it yet, but they just bought some GE today. They're 7, 6 and 3 so I'm fairly certain that they'll thank me someday ;-)
BTW - this will bring their US holdings up to about 15% - LOL
roy, what do you like about GE?
(personally, long ge )
Along with most of big conglomerates, GE is benefiting from the week dollar (somewhere around 50% of their sales are international). It has underperformed the broader market (S&P 500), which is a trend that I *think* is reversing (I'm not much of a trader - heh), as developing economies around the world invest more in cheap U.S. technology. Along those lines, GE is a play on clean water, energy, medical imaging, security, etc. - all the things that you need for a happy populace. It certainly might get cheaper, but this looks like a decent enough price to me.
good luck!
Oh and Roger, sorry to hear about your friend. Couldn't agree more on the soda issue. It's hopeless for the wife and me, but we have been successful in keeping the kids off it, thus far.
roy,
you bought for the same reasons I did in 2003...at least the part that ge can literally create the infrastructure for a brand new country. wall st has never been convinced and won't be until earnings and sales show a growth company and not a financial company that is nothing more than proxy for our economy.I will hold and still anticipate that there will be a sudden awakening when the parts come together to hit a critical mass .
curious about the soda health issue...would like to hear more, personally, never into soda; just coffee, cheese, and ice cream are my vices.
jasper
Isn't GE in the mortgage and other credit business too?
yep, yep
Re the questions about sodas. Here are only two instances of problems with them.
Item. Sodium benzoate has long been used as a preservative in sodas. Benzoate, when mixed with vitamin C in soft drinks, becomes a carcinogenic (cancer causing). Research has found that sodium benzoate damages mitochondrial DNA.
Item. Ample evidence indicates that soft drinks cause lower calcium levels and higher phospates in the blood. Calcium is leached out of bones thereby. Of children tested, 67 percent had low blood calcium levels. This two thirds regulary drank soft drinks.
Item. Caffeinated sodas (Coca Cola, etc.) are vaso-constrictors, producing high blood pressure.
Lots of things are listed as carcinogens.
Testosterone is also a carcinogen. Are you going to cut your testicles off????
Soda gets a lot of bad press and the calcium issue is well documented but the carcinogen issue is urban legend at this point.
Unfortunately the truth about many so called carcinogens in our diet will take years to determine. But the hysteria will plague us for quite a while.
but it is still sugar water that contributes to a shift to a greater percent of the US population being overweight which dominoes into plenty of problems cancer related or not.
don't forget hig fructose corn syrup, which is a nasty by product of our sugar tarrifs and corn subsidies. Bad for you. Metabolized only by your liver and into fatty acids before it can be consumed. Strangely it also requires copper to metabolize, which is a trace mineral you generally shouldn't consume much of, but I haven't heard anyone claim any issues related to copper deficiency from corn syrup consumption. HFCS needs to go.
"Testosterone is also a carcinogen. Are you going to cut your testicles off????"
Or, you can just wait until you get married for that......
LOL
"Do you swear to solemnly snip them jewels, so help you god?"
ON A SERIOUS NOTE
anyone hear any rumors of French and German banknotes back in circulation or readied for circulation?
http://worldreports.org/news/37_new_911_to_fabricate_derivatives_end-game
Diet Croak anyone?
http://tinyurl.com/yptfef
Of course anything like this done in moderation shouldn't be too bad. I drink about 3 diet sodas a week though I doubt that if I give these up my hair will grow back. :)
BTW, if anyone out there still thinks that other world markets are not connected to ours here, read this:
http://tinyurl.com/2tuunh
re: that link to Marketwatch
correlations always go up in a panic or crisis. Nothing new there.
Agree with the soda comment. I lost 20lbs just by stopping my 5-6 soda a day habit (free soda in the workplace was a bad idea)
1 soda is like drinking 2 cups of sugar in water so i was drinking over 10 cups of white sugar daily!
I believe soda is connected to the huge jump in US diabetes.
Most chronic diseases result from a combination of age, genetics and lifestyle choices. While one cannot change the first two, one can control the third. The prevalence rate of diseases increases exponentially after age 60. But over the last 20 years, the incidence rate of chronic disease, has increased steadily each year largely due to LIFESTYLE CHOICES.
Eat right (get enough nutrients, roughage, diversity while keeping sodium and saturated fat levels to a minimum) and maintain a healthy weight; exercise regularly (cardiovascular, strength and flexibility so that you can live independently longer); and get age appropriate health screenings.
I cannot imagine how this country is going to pay for the healthcare costs of our aging population. I've seen the medical data (disease profile, costs) on the the Medicare population for the demonstration project underway. It is truly staggering. Magnifying that by this bolus of baby boomers moving up the age bands presents an unpleasant scenario unfolding that will likely result in an inability to pay for necessary care.
Ultimately it is our personal responsibility to optimize our health within the constraints of our demographic and genetic profile. It sounds so easy--and it should be. However we know the reality that changing harmful behaviors is not easy.
After posting this I'm feeling guilty, and I'll now go out and exercise with my dogs!
I had kidney disease as a child and have been warned off colas. Dark sodas supposedly bad for the kidneys.
get rid of those soft drinks.
Beer is proof God loves us and wants us to be happy.
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