Much to my wife's delight we will be spending the entire evening with CNBC Asia.The norm is for me to watch until 6pm (AZ time) and then just check in occasionally.
One little nugget I heard, although not fully captured in the chart (Tuesday's drop is not included) is that the Nikkei 225 is down 30% from July.
Every year we hear from people who say this is the year for Japan and I never understand why.
9 comments:
Japan is in capitulation mode and this is japans year!!!!!!
Actually I have no idea, but I could not resist :)
The most fascinating part of all this is that we get to watch it unfold all afternoon and evening. I wonder what the Fed Governors are doing this evening?
Ok roger, so you've been watching Asia...
thoughts?
Banzai.
LOL
Markets are doing poorly so far today.
Near term bottom and rally to new hi???
Or
Bear trap where we go down even lower.
This is when the true followers of Rogers diversified portfolio approach are tested.
Roger,
how do you know we will not follow Japans path? If we do will a diversified portfolio be appropriate for some one older than 60??? 50???
do not they need more protection from a protracted bear market in equities?
The similarities to the nikkei crash followed by the japanese housing collapse seems way to similar to the US from 2000 to today. How many people can wait 10 to 20 years without pulling money out of their portfolio? I can not.
I am not suggesting panic. We may handle things much better than Japan. But we may not and the similarities are pretty much spot on.
i don't know we won't be japan but the differences are vast. you know all those write downs citi and merrill and everyone else takes? yeah japan used to not do that--problem. do you know about the cross ownership issues? those make things different. there are other things too that escape me at this early hour.
my get offensive strategy includes going back above the 200 dma, if it never happens ok. i have ideas for further defense and will go in whatever direction the market takes us.
Roger,
good points versus Japan, but I am still concerned about a Japan lite so to speak.
We basically disagree on the magnitude of what is to come.
Oh and there are all those trillions in derivatives that have not been addressed. A few percent loss on those could be bad. But I am sure they have quant models that say it can not happen.
No you are all wrong. This is the year of Gondwanaland. No its Lemuria. No its Atlantis!!
Ok - just kidding :) The forecasting business is pretty difficult but sticking to same things every year doesn't make sense.
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