Yesterday I gave a quick second opinion on a portfolio idea for another blogger who is quite successful (it might soon be public but I am not sure) that assembled diversification in a completely different way from the way I do it.If you have been paying attention to comments from folks like T you have seen the success they are having too. What I know about the way T executes his ideas, it is much different from my approach too.
Last night we were at Barnes & Noble doing some Christmas shopping and I took a quick gander at the investing section and aside from seeing a couple of books that were previously advertised on this site I saw books with different and successful investment ideas still.
In the indexing world there is an ongoing debate about cap weighting and fundamental weighting, again different ideas. Have you ever read or heard someone successful say to sell on weakness? What about someone just as smart saying to sell on strength?
While we all should clearly have a method that we are most comfortable with there are many different ways to succeed. This is one of the things that makes investing and capital markets so fascinating. Additionally there is always more to learn.
However much you know now and however good of an investor your are now you will be better in the future as you experience more and read more. This is true of everyone.
A long time ago an anonymous commenter said he felt my knowledge and understanding of foreign markets was superficial. One thing is very likely, compared to some people my understanding of this area is very weak. Compared to other people it is probably pretty decent. Where ever it stands now it will be better in the future.
By taking the time to read this blog and hopefully other blogs you take in diffr'ent strokes to develop and hone what you do. The manner in which you build a portfolio is going to evolve.
I started writing ages ago about things like blogs and investment products empowering do-it-yourselfers to become more knowledgeable investors. And while that is far from a visionary idea it is true nonetheless so make the most of it.
5 comments:
Couldn't agree more with your observation, Roger. Further to your point, different methods and styles outperform at different times, and it takes conviction to stick to your guns when your approach seems to be lagging. Or make small adjustments as you've suggested. Seems like the only ones who get good press are those who are shooting the lights out and it makes the rest of us feel like we're doing something wrong.
yeah clearly there are times where just owning RIMM, AAPL, BIDU and ISRI (if I have that one right?) would be the best way to go but not with money--too much octane.
Heh - that makes me think of the quants (when everyone does the same thing, the market gets distorted).
I have been following the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI)for a while now. It seems to be clearly turning negative.
I think this is one more indication of the start of a bear. Would you agree and would you increase cash levels?
I think this can be a useful indicator and the shipping stocks have confirmed the BDI.
I am already on the road to a defensive stance disclosed countless times. I started this quite a while back in an effort to be out in front of a bear market a little bit consistent with the 200 DMA. I believe the demand for equities has been unhealthy for a while.
For the time being i have been lucky enough with my current positioning in what is still down a little. If we continue further down I'll make another change or two but I don't have a great answer for you as I am already there.
I think a top for this cycle is in, period. The data point you cite helps my case but I have no change today.
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