This post has nothing to do with Kenny Bania but he's always good for a chuckle.Just a few random items today. The Claymore timber ETF is supposed to list today. It will own stocks, not lumber traded on a commodity exchange somewhere.
I could not find the index constituency on the ClearIndexes site or on the Claymore site but I think I have seen the list somewhere before, I think it is heavy in Weyerhauser (WY) and Plum Creek Timber (client holding), the Claymore site should be updated after the open. Timber is a low correlation play, if the index is created in such a way that it still has a low correlation it will probably offer some utility but we'll see.
The turnaround yesterday was a good example of how the market can just turn at any time for no reason at all. While I would be shocked if that was the end of it yesterday but maybe it will offer some reprieve for a few days? Or not.
Bernanke's answer about the dollar was god-awful. It almost seemed like he knew his answer was bad as he was saying it but that he had nothing else to say. I don't actually believe this, I'm just saying that is what it seemed like.
While we are at it, someone needs to fill Dennis Neale in on why a weak dollar is bad--low confidence, high inflation, higher interest rates, slower growth. I met Dennis three years ago on my first, of two, appearances on Forbes on Fox. We was very funny and very friendly.
I have written a few times about the volatility in the Chinese stocks and the new tech fab four (the New Originals for Spinal Tap fans). These types of stocks are moving in huge amounts on a daily basis and I think it is similar to the last few months of the tech bubble. Do you remember how much CMGI, Commerce One and Ariba moved on a daily basis?
I have said many times I do not expect the market to get taken down 50% if/when this unwinds but it makes a great case for cutting back any long held overweight exposure. The China theme has been going for a while, the broader emerging theme even longer than that. Zero is not a bet I would make but I wouldn't be heavy either.
The contrast to energy is that it isn't moving 10% a day.
I am due to have the Nakoma interview today three hours into the stock market day. Hopefully I will have something here or at TSCM sometime next week.
Finally, the writers' strike is hitting home. I heard yesterday that the now tired and predictable, but still loved, "24" has been pulled/delayed from its January start.
10 comments:
There is link to the press release for the timber index etf (CUT) on the claymore.com front page.
for now I can't see enough info on that particular ETF...but I would say that it is still too soon to invest in things timber related.
ALMOST, but not quite yet. The change in USD and CAD strength might have been what kicked off this fund finally...but it's not quite time for timber industries to go far. I too would look for companies that own large chunks of land as well, not just mills and licenses.
24 is predictable? Come on Roger, I'll bet you thought the terrorists were going to blow up New York in last years series with one of their suitcase nukes!
Oh ya, I forgot about the PTT. I guess it is predictable.
But I don't like the idea now of having to wait until March for the series to start. BTW that's not due to the writers strike. That's when Kiefer gets out of the drunk tank.
http://tinyurl.com/mc633
is he really in the hoosgow (sp?) until then? ouch babe.
i think i saw a trailer for the coming season, i think they are recycling the bad guys from season 1.
I might be wrong about that.
That it was pushed back to March is news to me so thanks for letting me know.
Funny re Kiefer in the drunk tank. Hey if you guys are discussing timber, any opinions on WY (Weyehauser)? It consistently gets very low ratings from IBD.
Barron's just had an article last week or the week before on WY, the article was favorable and the logic compelling but I do not own it.
I did an analysis of CUT vs WOOD.L at http://diehards.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=99603#99603
The conclusion by me is CUT or WOOD.L don't behave like a timber investment. Owning PCL, RYN or PCH would probably be better. POPEZ if you want a timber MLP.
the article is compelling, true, I wonder if it's a sponsored article...
the fact that they may try to move towards a land based stock is the favorable part. also, I've seen their new campaign - pushing 'green' and whatnot. that is also compelling.
Seeing as most of timber has close to bottomed out, it may be a good time. truthfully still i see the industry as continuing to 'consolidate' for a long time still, though i may very well be wrong. Thing is, there has been limited external investment into the industry - more is shutting down that turning around - though the new campaign is a good sign of diversifying of internal investment.
Good article on the currency stuff here:
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2007/11/modeling_exchan.html
Sorry Roger.
Don't quote me on the March date. That was some hyperbole on my part based on his recent bout with alcohol.
That being the case he may not be sobering up until around the time when Citibank hits $70.00.
He did arrested recently on a DUI though.
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