Wikinvest Wire
Saturday, November 17, 2007
The Big Picture For The Week Of November 18, 2007
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14 comments:
Roger
Earlier this year I moved 100% of my 401(k) money to the Stable Valve Fund (yilding about 5%). All of the contract issuers are rated AA and above. However, in addition to US Gov/Corp/Muni/MBS/ABS, 21.5% of asset is categorized as "Mortage Pass-Thrus". Should I be concerned? The fund is managed by Galliard Cap Management (a sub of Wells Fargo.
tom k
are you really recommending 90% cash?
wow....that is a huge bet
Anon 4:31, I'm not "recommending" anything. My timing model is part of a tactical asset allocation strategy I use to manage roughly 1/3 of my investment assets. In my view timing is a risk/volatility management tactic, not a means to to enhance returns.
My timing model has an intermediate term orientation. I could easily flip back to 100% long if my trend indicators change. I am a market agnostic and don't try to predict market direction. If there is one thing I've learned over 25 years of investing is predictions are nothing more than guesses.
Approximately half of my investments are dicatated by a buy and hold strategy: 36% US equities, 36% intl equities, 10% reits, 18% bonds.
Tom:
How is your 10% allocated?
Roger: there's something strange going on at Schwab. I went to Morningstar to look up SWHEX and I recognized the fund manager's names. So, I pulled up the entire family and see that those managers show up as managers of most of their funds, from technology to healthcare to this long-short fund. Do you think that's weird?
tom k
i suggest you take a hard look at the after tax returns of your timing model vs. your buy/hold asset allocation....
i'm willing to bet the buy hold significantly outperforms the timing model.
there are very few timing models that can do well afer tax over the long term.....very few...
larry, why in gods name would you be looking at schwab's funds?
Anonymous said...
"Larry, why in gods name would you be looking at schwab's funds?"
So that you could ask me why?
back from a good long hike.
TomK post his model by reader demand from quite a few months ago and I am quite certain he does this with qualified money.
Larry,
I am not sure the term mutual fund manager is the right term. As I understand it they runevery stock through a quant model and each stock gets a letter grade like at school.
They go long the A&Bs and short the Ds and Fs.
I do not believe the "managers" make the same number of decisions as in another fund.
I further believe the model skews to value and according to Barron's for several years the Schwab family scored very high in their survey.
My TAA strategy is within an 401k plan so taxes are not a consideration. Obviously a buy & hold strategy is ideal for taxable accounts, but I also use this strategy within my IRAs.
Larry, the 10% is in a brokerage money market account.
I can't imagine how you can title your blog "The Big Picture" and yet every week we get nothing but wallowing in minutia!
I've moved my non-diversified account 100% each week this month.
It would take you two decades of being right to match that.
Go diversify that.
LOL! Dave B mad.
Dave B,
You are rarely coherent and often insulting. I banned you from this site months ago and while I have no idea why you are back you still do not offer anything of value to this site.
Any future comment you leave, regardless of what you say will be deleted.
Roger,
We can pretty much tell the wackos from the posters we want to read.
It's a shame that you can't employ a self-descriptive font for some of the hecklers' postings.
(Google "fonts crazy" and click on the first offering. It would make looking through the worthless harangues at least amusing.)
Rick
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