First something market related. Joe Kernen just made a comment about the markets maybe stabilizing which amused because the futures were up more than nine points.If we go on to have a great big up day have we stabilized? I'm thinking no. Even if the bottom is in (too early for me to think so) it seems difficult to fathom that given the type of event we have had (I believe we are still having) we could be done shaking out in just one month.
I write about the market snapping back quickly from panics but this would be very quickly.
A couple of hours ago Random Roger's Big Picture crossed the million hit milestone. I realize Barry gets a million hits every couple of weeks but it has taken almost three years here.
I had been looking forward to this for a while but then had an odd epiphany last week about this site.
There are numerous sites that syndicate my content and so the number of people that read what I write far exceeds the numbers on my sitemeter account.
A while back I was invited to join something called BlogBurst which distributes content. Reuters picked up my blog. If I am reading my BlogBurst page correctly there have been 1,015,802 (candidly the number makes no sense at all but that is what it says on my login page) views of my content on Reuters in the last week and another 12,713 views on a site called the Palm Beach Post.
I have no idea how many read me on Seeking Alpha but since their Alexa number is in the 5000 range I am thinking quite a few. So the 1 million figure on my blog means almost nothing; really the site might as well not even exist as opposed to just syndicating content.
This site generates a couple of hundred dollars a month in ad revenues and nothing from syndication. That syndication does not pay is ok but I am having trouble reconciling that the folks doing the syndication do get paid. One of the syndication sites has a plan in the works to remedy this and I have signed papers but am not sure when it kicks in.
I obviously enjoy blogging and since I do have a job I can survive just fine without it paying but as blogosphere content has evolved I am not sure compensation has kept up.
Most bloggers I know don't derive any real money from their sites but a couple of the biggies clearly do which is great but at some point some very good content will disappear as a function of bloggers not being able to figure out to change the compensation model or justify the time spent. I, however, am planning to be here for a while.
Thank you for indulging me in this rant.
19 comments:
I gotta a lot of work to do to understand bonds.
All this turmoil in the credit market did inspire a question in me. If the mortgage market has crashed and banks are devaluing loans on their books left and right - what has happened to the value of my own mortgage? I've got a 15 yr fixed at 5% with $100k left on it. I don't think Anyone would want it right now. If I had the cash, could I buy my loan back at a discounted value? I know the restrictions in the covenant say no, but in these extraordinary times - is anyone doing this?
this won't effect homeowners who can keep making their payments.
the only scenario I could imagine fro buying your mortgage back would be if you took a mortgage from a one branch bank and that bank did not sell your mortgage to someone else and that one branch bank was having trouble. in that obscure instance, maybe.
The heads on CNBC should not be making comments about stablization unless they clearly say "THIS IS MY OPINION"
My opinion is we hit 1480-90 on S&P and we will see new lows again.
The fed has acknowledged that we have a problem, and I'm not so sure they have a quick fix.
90% of the comments on CNBC fall into two categories
BAD
WORSE
Anon:6:08
Great question...I would love to bail conutry wide out....say 35 cents on the dollar for my 15 year loan.
Congratulations Roger on hitting the 1M mark. Given the syndication effect, this no. as as much relevnce as the DJIA. However no one can deny its psychological impact on the way you view your work and others view yours. Your blog is a part of my daily reads and I would like to take this oppty to seek your guidance.
The problem statement is …
I need to choose a convinient single (if possible) benchmark for my portfolio. I have been in the market since July 2005 and my CAGR YTD is 23.32%. How do I know that I would be better off sitting on my hands and just investing in index funds vs. an active process which I presently follow?. All the present indexes like the S&P 500 or the MSCI EAFE seem woefully inadequate and I want to avoid using too many weighted benchmarks.
Any advice you give here would be very much valued.
Thanks in advance...Sandeep
Data: My portfolio is entirely made of US stocks and mutual funds both international & domestic
This is the Morningstar stats on my portfolio
Cash 4.00%
US Stocks 52.00%
Foreign stocks 41.00%
Bonds 3.00%
Other 0.00%
Value Core Growth
Large 11.0% 12.0% 40.0% 63.0%
Medium 6.0% 5.0% 10.0% 21.0%
Small 0.0% 15.0% 1.0% 16.0%
17.0% 32.0% 51.0%
U.S. & Canada 57
Europe 16
Japan 3
Latin America 2
Pacific Rim 15
Other 4
Not Classified 3
Interesting stats and projections for real estate problems from San Diego
http://tinyurl.com/22wuyj
I'm thinking about the same issue, Roger, and what I am doing at present is allowing the syndication to expand. Perhaps one year out, DV, I'll begin cutting them back. As it is, most people find my blog by references from other blogs, or through Google.
You've been at it longer, so maybe your day to begin pruning the syndicators is now.
thanks David, the syndication issue has many moving parts and I have never fully understood it.
sansunder, i can't really give you advice in the manner I think you are asking.
In general terms, philosophically, I want the path of least resistance. So not a lot of trading (but the willingness to trade when necessary) and a simple benchmark. We use the S&P 500 but any broad benchmark will do.
Ultimately, flawed as they are, the broad indexes capture what they are supposed to capture. You can still have different sector weights with a little more work; I have disclosed be light in financial stocks for a couple of years.
"As of last week, the Fed was offering 85% financing on "AAA" rated collateralized debt obligations or CDOs, paper which changes hands at half that rate over-the-counter, when it trades."
Quote from
De-Leveraging America
Posted on Aug 22nd, 2007
by
christopher whalenChristopher Whalen on Seeking Alpha
I have not seen a quote for what these CDO's traded for in the markets
A million hits??? Wow! Try to remember the little people Roger ;-)
One has to wonder; with the flight to quality on Monday and Tuesday, who is buying equities today?
Roger,
Congrats on the 1M.
I read your blog mostly through Google Reader, and as such assume that you get no hits (or revenue!) from me because of this. Which is a shame, as you (and lots of other worthy blogs) should get some of the trickle-down revenues.
Anyway, no real answers to how make it work - but keep up the interesting commentary!
--Q
joe kernan is a clown.
why would anyone listen to him, or report on what he says or thinks?
Congrats on a million Roger. Great blog!
Roger, congratulations on the 1 million mark.
I would gladly pay to read your blog. When everything is crazy, you are the voice of reason. And you have helped me to avoid making emotional investment decisions.
thank you for the kind word. the money thing is not about my having to make money from it so much as should the aggregators make money w/o sharing with the content providers.
this becomes a bigger issue with any blogs written by people who just trade for themselves.
I certainly understand what you're saying about content and being paid for it. As you point out, the aggregators get paid for it, but unless our sites are personally visited, we don't.
Somehow, that's got to be rectified - I guess this speaks to the same sort of issues that all kinds of artists are going through with copyright - somehow, the right to be paid for original works.
Jay Walker
The Confused Capitalist
Hey Roger,
I started coming to your site about two months ago and actively sought out your blog after seeing your posts on wsj marketbeat, alpha and other places... I try to click your ads every now and again to help you out. Im sure you know this already.. While im sure there is some balance that you will try to achieve by weening some of the syndication its going to be at the cost of growth. If you werent syndicated as much as you are i might not be a daily visitor. The pub is worth something.
thanks for blogging
Eric
hmmmm....I am a real estate agent for 13 years in Scottsdale, AZ and have a few opinions--Personally I just sold my short term bond fund and am sitting in a 5% money market for the next opportunity--my recent "opportunities" were properties I sold last year before the "subprime" meltdown. When I saw properties declining in value, which was in 1995, I decided to sell because I thought that things might get worse, not better.....at that time I was not considered smart since everything was getting bought up and the lending was easy.
So anyway.going forward I think that buyers should wait since the foreclosures are only going to increase and then increase again in the spring which will be the time to pounce. In my opinion that will be the best buying opportunity in your lifetime as values will just steadily increse for the next 10 years--hey they ain't making any more land and if you think the China buyers aren't coming--you are WRONG! take care, Tim
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