It appears as though Eddie Murphy might have shoved a banana in the stock market's tail pipe as lots of things are going down a noticeable amount this week.The other day I opined that a 5% ten year treasury would not have a lasting impact on equity prices. With just a few days of the move behind it is too soon to know whether that opinion will turn out to be wrong or not. Also the move in yield has been so swift that a correction to lower yield seems likely to me, even if just for a few days.
The only green I see is Australian and my Norwegian stock is holding on to a whopping $.01 gain.
Every so often there are short spurts where everything goes down; various ideas about correlation appear to not hold up. A few day period is not really the best test for the concept blending assets with low correlations, especially when that few days is being driven by market events as opposed to external shocks.
The utility sector has been pounded this week. I am a big fan of the space and have been overweight, but that overweight has been very slight by design (yes more moderation preaching).
In yesterday's decline I lagged by a slight hair, today it looks like I am making that hair back. If my weight in utilities corresponded with my sentiment I would be heavier and really getting pasted with this decline.
The international real estate space, I have written about this lately too, is also getting pasted. This is a very interesting part of the market, very interesting, but I have no exposure and if I did it would be, as mentioned the other day 2%. Despite the potential it seems like a space with a lot of unintended consequences. Getting it wrong with 2-3% may not even be a speedbump though.
10 comments:
Interesting how gold isn't working again. You've got a cyclone hitting the gulf, the Bush n' Putin Show, Turkey invading Iraq, Paris getting sprung early, and still it's down.
It's like stuff isn't correlated on the upside but is on the downside.
Commodities in general are up today. Oil and agriculture are up solid.
in the short term i think that is right. in the long term i hope its wrong (insert nervous smile).
I just added another market timing indicator to my model. Whenever Roger puts that picture of Skeletor on his blog, look out! The last time he did it was Feb 26th.
tomk
LMAO, Skeletor carries much power and sway, even over global capital markets.
My small holding in DBU is getting slapped stupid this week. Who doesn't have to pay their electric bill anyway? Nothing's safe folks!
Is their an ETF for cocaine, or maybe an ETF for Columbia or Peru that anyone knows about? (Paris Hilton cried her way out of the slammer today & it's party time)
Hi Roger,
I'm curious if you have any models that you like for allocating 100K into ETF's? If so would you mind commenting on this or provide a previous link.
Thanks
Andy
Andy,
I really don't. For accounts that come in that are that size I use a mix ETFs, CEFs and a couple of stocks.
I have written a couple of times about all ETF portfolios but candidly these are academic exercises as I simply do not believe that all anything portfolios are the best way to go.
A sidenote to Roger. I was out buying real estate in the Chicago area in areas of weakness this week and just returned. The pic you featured in Seeking Alpha today is the fort in the city of Senj,Croatia in close promimity to the island of Krk in the northcentral Adriatic. My ancestors were Ustok privateers (pirates) there in the 13-16th century, plundering the Venetian, Ottoman Turks and Papal States merchant ships under the friendly eye of the Austrian Empire, while containing the Ottoman Islamists with raids and carnage inland . They were directly involved in the building of the fort from which the photograph was taken.
T, you know what your people were doing back then? I don't even remember my father's middle name, lol.
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