From the I need to get out more department I was hoping this weeks Barron's would be online today and that I would not have to wait until Saturday, no dice.
The post yesterday where I sort of answered an asset allocation/retirement planning question drew some comments asking more questions. One thing I would say to anyone who is their own planner; get a book or something that goes into great detail about how to take income from your portfolio. I think you need to really understand the numbers here before you started taking anything out of your account.
The market put in a good showing this week as it moves closer to turning the dip into a V. I blogged several times that it seemed like this is what would happen so now that it has (so far), what's next?
I guess the dip, while it was happening scared plenty of people but it was so small that I have to think another one of some magnitude is waiting for us nearby. If there is another one and it starts big on day I'll think it a V and if the market goes down like a water torture I'll think it is the next bear market.
I was saddened yesterday to hear that Darryl Stingley passed away. The thing about his story that I had never thought about until now was how young he was when he took the hit from Jack Tatum; 27.
Did you see the BC/North Dakota finish? Nutty ending but the right team won.
11 comments:
That jobs number was sure a surprise, but sadly, it is materially wrong most of the time--either up or down.
Employment has seemed very positive for quite some time regardless what the nay sayers believe.
OTH, take a look at the you tube post at http://www.galatime.com/ It is a roller coaster ride based on inflation adjusted housing prices since 1890. A very interesting perspective on the housing market. Just remember it is inflation adjusted prediction.
Jobs growth has been less robust than any economic recovery I can identify in the past half-century but it has been positive and can't quarrel with that; based on previous behavior of many of these reports however it seems likely the count will be revised downward later.
The roller coaster ride (http://tinyurl.com/33pnge) Anon 8:07 mentions has been doing the blog rounds this past week and it is indeed interesting although I'm not sure what "prediction" means in this context since the roller coaster track emulates inflation adjusted (real return) historical sales of existing homes (http://tinyurl.com/ywmj37); but never mind, it's still interesting (and fun!), although after the first "Yippee" I found myself wanting to see signs indicating the year and inflation rate along the way. The last hill, where we are now, definitely makes you wonder how deep the following valley might be.
WRT the stock market next week it's looking overbought so I expect a drop but have no particular bets on that outcome one way or the other: My strategic portfolio has been set for months and in my tactical portfolio I'm still otherwise engaged in shorting select home builders and subprime/alt-A lending companies; frankly I can't believe there are still buyers for some of these outfits but as long as there are enough of them to skew the risk/reward ratio in my favor (1:5 or better) I'll be taking the other side of their trade.
From the chart point of view, all three indicies formed a cup and handle pattern. If we gap up and stay strong Monday, most likely is a break out and usually a break out from cup/handle pattern are very bullish. Especially QQQQ, if gap high and stay high, we almost have an island reversal too. Then there's a whole bunch of people gets trapped on the "island"... so usually you get whole bunch of short covering and the "regret" buyers coming back...
To "rw",
Yes, it just feel like they save some of Feb number to March... So Feb is so low and March so high... Almost feel like is manipulated for the market...
Paul Merriman has a book called Live it Up without Outliving Your Money. I haven't read it but I heard it's pretty good.
He also has an article on his website called Withdrawals in retirement: taking less can give you more. Lots of tables with different different distribution schedules:
http://www.fundadvice.com/articles/retirement/withdrawals-in-retirement-taking-less-can-give-you-more.html
lots of comments for a holiday, thank you
to the 9:32 comment, the Feb number was revised up.
A note on MarketWatch about American Home Mortgage's results http://tinyurl.com/2bt8nb
Part of the story was the reduction in dividend. If memory serves, there was a discussion in the comments section here sparked by a poster who thought the dividend yield of one of these firms to be attractive; accordingly he/she wanted to buy/accumulate more seeing it as a good value.
I believe that my argument was that if the firm is doing badly, dividend generally gets slashed so the yield goes down.
Not trying to do a nanny, nanny boo-boo, but rather reinforce the seductiveness of dividend yields on battered stocks can lead you astray.
"...nanny, nanny boo-boo..."
LOL!
WRT Darryl Stingley I didn't realize (until I looked it up just now) that he and "The Assassin" never reconciled: That may have been because, as far as I could discover anyway, Tatum consistently contended it was a "clean hit" (it was according to the current rules AFAIK) and never expressed contrition in public.
Like a bad corner on the road someone usually has to die before the safety measures (signs, guard rails, etc.) are installed.
With all due respect I don't trust the jobs report and your choice of hockey teams is wrong! But maybe the Sioux loss keeps Toews and Oshie at UND for another championship shot instead of going pro. Sadly,I doubt that too.
Mike Bahnmiller
Sioux Fan from Hockeytown, USA
Warroad, Minnesota
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