I used this picture a couple of weeks ago when, in my opinion, Dylan Ratigan chopped down Peter Schiff in an interview.Well I was up early enough to see Schiff chop down Ned Riley, again in my opinion.
I have made fun of both of these guys in the past for different reasons.
Peter blows a lot of wind but I did check out his website a while back and I have never made fun of what little I know about what he does for clients as I think his client accounts are well run, but I do make fun of his wind.
I have less of an idea as to what Ned Riley does for clients and really can only go on what I see from him on TV. His results might be wicked awesome (c'mon you know he has said that a couple of times before) but I don't get the feeling he knows as much as someone like him should know based on what he says.
This morning they were on and Ned said he owns no foreign stocks for clients because they are so "darn unpredictable." Peter took out the metaphorical chain saw and chopped him down. Peter pointed out that a savings account in New Zealand was up 30%. That could be true if you opened an NZ savings account during the ten minutes (exaggeration) that NZDUSD was below $0.60.
I took from the interview that Peter has zero in domestic stocks.
Neither stand seems ideal. Zero in foreign in the context Ned said makes me question whether he's even done the work to actually make a compelling argument as to why they are so "darn unpredictable" and if so why that is bad.
I would also say that given generally tame inflation of the last few years, Peter's fire and brimstone seem out of place too. I realize healthcare, energy and tuition are up a lot but the price of other goods in our baskets are down or not up a lot.
The returns overseas have been better but I don't think Peter's rantings hit anywhere close to the mark in terms of magnitude.
But I must say Peter absolutely got the better of Ned, it was hysterical.
14 comments:
I like your blog, but I disagree with the your point on price increases.
It is pretty hard to find an asset that has not doubled in the last 5 years. And it is pretty hard to find many goods that have fallen in price in the same period. Perhaps on certain electronics and other imported, consumer goods, but that list is tiny.
Also many goods that have not had much of nominal price increase have had their materials substituted for lesser quality, thus the real price has risen. Look at furniture and appliances made today versus those made just a few years ago. They are now lighter, smaller, flimsier and last less than before. The simple fact is the US dollar has and is becoming worth less and less. Schiff is right.
I think most of what you say is subjective but still could be correct.
Assuming you are correct how does this effect the US only? The inferior quality, given how much we import, would seem to be a global issue not a domestic one?
I've followed Peter Schiff for the last year or so. He tends to rant a bit and is definately in the "sky is falling" camp, but I think makes some coherent arguments. He's also extremely conservative in that he recommends clients build a portfolio that should do well even if he's completely wrong. Key insight is risk avoidance - including risk that US$ may melt down.
It scares me when a financial advisor talks about watching CNBC. Financial "news" lite for the unsuspecting masses.
But, the drooling Cramer is more amusing than watching Jerry Springer.
Carry on Rog. Lets just hope you never trade on anything you hear on TV.
I have written about this quite a few times. The primary role of CNBC is news, not the interpretation but the news itself.
I don't want to devote anytime to reading about Daimler Chrysler but I do want to be remotely in touch, as an example.
Further they do have some guests on that are worth listening to even if they do not get asked the best questions.
I will take in information anywhere I can get it. Part of being more knowledgable is sorting out lots of different content.
I never get a chance to watch CNBC but a I get a kick out of reading the headlines on sites like Marketwatch.com. This morning the headline was how the CPI report tamped down inflation fears. For the past couple weeks we've been reading speculation of stagflation. A few weeks before that, the news coverage was focused on the sub-prime debacle and the carry trade. Before that, the Goldilocks economy was playing out.
Here's what I'm getting at: If you consume too much mainstream financial news you won't be able to see the forest through the trees. Thank God there are blogs like Roger's and Melbane's. They may touch on financial news topics, but focus more on big picture ideas. I seriously believe most investors would be better off if they consumed a lot less financial news.
That's the second time you've run that photo. I cannot get by the symbolic imagery.
Leisa, this probably won't be the last time either, lol.
TomK you raise an interesting point. In a previous comment on this post I used an example of being remotely in touch with DCX as news.
a guy with some funds and a few stocks (one of which not being DCX) probably does not need to know the latest from Tracinda.
If you get your news from CNBC you are seriously out of touch.
All you get from CNBC is rehashed PR spin issued by companies hoping you will invest, and screaming commentators.
OK, guy, you win.
Regarding the statement that the NZ Dollar was below 60 US cents only briefly, in February 2002 the NZD reached a low of 42 US cents. It was at about 50 US cents in October 2002 during our most recent visit there.
the context was that Schiff said a savings account in NZ returned 30% in the last year.
Low inflation??? What are you using as the gauge??? Reconstituted M3 is 10 - 13%, and estimated real CPI increases at ~ 10%/y. The govt statistics are total nonsense.
Take a look here if the link works. Mike Maloney April 16, on the Puplava FSO site.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/0416.html
I think we have 2 - 3 weeks before all hell breaks loose. I again am add ing SDS and QID, and bought 200 SKF to nibble.
I get McHugh's data service and he makes Schiff look mild. We haven't seen a whiff of the inflation that lies ahead.
Loaded up on Platinum Metals Group. LT Calls GDX.
And profit taking in all the bottle rockets like SLW and RIO.
Note GOOG chart breaking down.
Good luck; we ALL will need a truckload very soon.
Facts are facts. To use the minutia to diminish the point of the argument is pointless. The greater argument is...
The FED, a private FOR PROFIT organization controls the capital markets.
My final thought. That ought to be CLEARLY ILLEGAL and TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE to anyone with a clue as to how the world markets operate.
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