Barry has a good write up on the Case/Schiller Home price index going negative.This stuff matters but I think it matters more to the state of the overall economy than most individuals.
What I mean by that is that if you are not trying to sell your home or get equity out a decline of some single digit magnitude will not really impact you.
To the extent that homes sales (new and existing) and demand for homes helps drive the economy it is a negative. To draw an analogy of sorts, if there is a recession but you don't lose your job or have your pay cut are you really effected by the recession? Reasonably speaking this is debatable.
I have been expecting a normal recession to come for long enough that when it does come I will not have been accurate as to the timing by any stretch but I expect one to come nonetheless.
The picture is lame I suppose, it is from the Love Shack video. I just paused it and did a screen capture. Oh, well.
10 comments:
Roger,
is there a way to contact you? email/contact form? I couldn't find it on your site. Thanks.
Yes, Roger, I note that your e-mail address is missing, though it used to be listed.
Well, you can be sure that WHO gets affected by the recession are those souls that show up on the "jobless" claims that increase every week once the recession ball gets rolled down the hill.
For those who have NOT lost their job, they end up having to worker longer and harder due to the hiring freezes. But at least it is not being put out on the street.
babak you can click here, make sure to mention you need this forwarded to me and please give me a hint as to what this is about.
thank you.
ok thanks Roger, just sent it now with a note for it to be passed on to you.
cheers
B52's huh? Is that some kind of coded message that the market is going to bomb this year? ;-)
I'm still sitting on cash based on the theory that taking market risk this year is not worth any possible upside move.
I heard a fellow tonight on the Nightly Business Report that thinks that the market will end up flat at years end after the dust clears. I think that's about right...if things go right. But if a recession sets in...
"Open bomb-bay doors"
BTW Roger; have you ever gone down to Tucson to see a real B52?
http://www.thepepper.com/tucson_airplane_graveyard.html
never been to the grave yard down there, I heard about it though.
I actually think the market will finish down just a little bit, nothing frightening.
B52s are vintage early 1950s designs retrofitted with some leftover technology and being kept aloft in dwindling numbers using parts salvaged from the scrap heap.
They are used as a bomblet and missile platform, launching from afar to avoid being shot down like a slow duck over contested airspace.
Kind of like Congress.
wow, some deep thinking here...
you expect a recession sometime?
thanks, rog......why not really go out on a limb, and predict a rainstorm sometime in the future...
do people really pay you for investment advice?
i have been very consistent in expecting a slow down for quite a while and have conceded being wrong about the timing.
you win the prize for most useless comment of the week.
Anon 5:30
Here is your prize; you choose the style and color:
http://www.geekculture.com/geekculturestore/webstore/caps.html
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