"?Como Estan....?"If you saw the movie you know what Ben Stiller's line was and sorry no upside down question mark on my keyboard.
A little Ron Burgundy will always be good for a laugh even on a big down day.
Some folks have come on TV or have said in print that this is healthy. I think a better word is normal. Declines and corrections are normal.
As I see the SPX now it is down on the year which is probably not a call to panic but will probably rattle a cage or two.
It is strange, to me anyway, that gold is down today and it is interesting that the yen is up a lot. I have been pointing to the yen as a possible catalyst for a correction for a few weeks now and while China is clearly the catalyst the yen would seem to be playing a big supporting role.
When the market opened I was lagging on the day but somehow the lag has evaporated and things are going a little better for me today. While that is fine, any clients who have not been reading my stuff for the last umpteen months will probably not take solace although no phone calls yet (insert nervous smile).
For people that were looking ahead to when the next bit of ugliness (what I have been preaching) would come and realize that it has no direct impact in their long term goals are probably in a better emotional place today than some other folks.
10 comments:
the easiest path to beating the benchmark is to buy pullbacks during up-trends.
That "easiest path" is best seen in hindsight.
Sami,
I hope you bought today on this so called pullback. This is the beginning of a larger decline and sorry but the up trend is officially over. How many people lost all their gains for the year? Answer: 90% of people including me...which means people will panic and continue to sell in the coming weeks/months ahead.
Barfl
i did buy today. and i have some cash set aside to buy again in a day or two if opportunity presents itself.
a one day event (or 2, or a week) does not make a trend.
I am not an idiot though, if indeed we start a down trend, as defined by Trader Vic so yet to be seen, i will close most of my longs and play the downside.
Also, the reason i happen to have cash to buy today is that i sold some stuff over the last week. I am not a buy and hold investor. I enter an exit order to sell my longs or buy-back my shorts immediately after i get filled on my entry. I always have a profit target that i enter as a hard order right after i get a fill. I also have stop-loss target that I keep a note of and manually execute if need be.
However, i do not sell longs on panic days like this. The only things i sold today were my IYR puts, for a handsome profit.
Wow, iyr puts. You just happened to pick those up before the big decline. Good job and nice job getting out of the market last week.
Barlf
Sami,
let us know when the next big drop is coming so we can get out of the market. You are a joke.
i did not happen to pick them before the big decline. i first bought the IRO OQ on 2/7 and sold on 2/9 when they hit my target. I then got into IRO OO on 2/13 at $2.35 and they got sold this morning at 9:37 AM ET as they hit my target of $4. it did not just happen, i always hedge via a combination of puts, shorts and GLD/SLV. I've been losing on my hedges more than winning in this bull market, but it is my insurance premium, i am happy to pay it.
and i did not get out of the market last week because i anticipated a drop. Some of my positions hit my limit-sell orders and sold.
At the time I placed limit buy orders on up-trending stocks I like at 4-8% below their closing prices, that was last week.
I got filled today. I placed more limit buys today, for AGD at $22.04 and DISH at $39.55, if we get another drop i will get fills. That's my system.
I did not do this because i saw the drop coming, I do this because market-makers jerk around with up-trending stocks to shake out longs. I used to get stopped out of my longs just to see them turn around and run higher. So, i smartened up and started placing my buy orders there. I place them at night, so that i am not involved in the trade during the day. Obviously some of my orders go weeks without getting filled. I either wait it out or move to a different target.
If you take emotions out of it and can figure out a system that works for your own style then you will be a lot happier, and maybe you will stop taking your frustrations out on people like me.
p.s. i immediately placed limit sell orders on all positions i entered today, at 3% profit target, i may get filled tomorrow, i may get filled next year. when that happens i will just place buy limit orders again, assuming we are still in an uptrending market.
Roger, over the past couple years or whenever I started reading you - I have learned:
1) it doesn't matter if I beat the market - what matters is a diversified portfolio with risk and reward in balance.
2) have diversity that includes multiple asset groups (eg. GLD, TIP).
I appreciate your great daily posts. It all comes home on days like this.
To make things a little easier, I traded SDS to make a few trading bucks at the open when Shanghai was down 9% & our markets ringing the bell at 9:30 am. Might as well take advantage of what I can. :)
Sami,
Almost every equity went down: international, health, Reits, utilities, large cap, small cap, midcap. In a down market diversity does not seem to matter much.
Roger
I would echo tobot's comments about your investment advice. There are many perma bears out there, some who have hidden polictical agendas. There are the gold bugs. And there are traders. Yours is one of the few sites that provides a balanced view of diversified portfolio investing. This is where most of us are at. Please keep up the good work.
Jim
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