Someone named Darrin Richards from a firm called Wealth Advisors just said on CNBC that most foreign markets have lagged the domestic market this year. Hmm, most? Well not quite.
Off the top Japan and Korea have lagged but let's use Yahoo's International Indices page to double check.
Buenos Aires up 30%
Brazil up 30%
Mexico up 40%
Canada up 16% or 17% (eyeballing a chart)
Well so much for the Americas, maybe Europe?
Austria 22%
Belgium 25%
Denmark 17%
France 18%
Germany 22%
Netherlands 16%
Norway 28%
Italy 20%
Spain 21%
Sweden 22%
Switzerland 18%
UK not sure of the exact number it shows outperforming the S&P 500 slightly
How about Asia?
Australia 20%
China 100%
Hong Kong 22%
India 42%
Indonesia 50%
Malaysia 20%
Japan 10%
New Zealand 20%
Singapore 25%
Korea 5%
Taiwan 20%
The numbers are all 12 months, not year to date. The percentages may be off because I eyeballed the Yahoo charts but only Japan and Korea lagged the S&P 500 in local terms.
The point is not to pick on this guy but to reiterate that things we read and hear are sometimes incorrect. While this is a relatively unimportant example it does apply to things that matter too.
Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
8 comments:
Thanks for reminding me why I don't ever turn on the T.V. anymore.
Interestingly, this is also how some people trade. Blindly without REALLY researching the facts. I find no matter how hard I dig to find something about the markets, I never go further than scratching the surface. This is a complicated game that entails a great deal of insight to be successful.
Roger, I wonder if you can clarify something for me. I have gotten the impression from visiting the blog that you are moderately bullish on the market (long, but hedged, and not short). But, on Tickersense.com, you are noted as having indicated a Dow well under 14000 for 2007. Isn't this inconsistent, am I misreading your writings or are you categorized incorrectly on Tickersense?
My 2006 prediction was for a decline. I will have more detail on my thoughts about 2007 but I will be taking the under again.
To be clear i am long but hedged, yes. I expect a decline but am not so stuborn about it that i have made some big bet with my clients' money.
Bullish is probably not an accurate word but the trend is up and I am not fighting it in client accounts.
Anybody have a convincing reason why foreign has outperformed US for years? You can throw a dart at a map and pretty much any country it hits has beaten the US (if it has a stock market).
I learned in my time at Fisher that foreign vs domestic tends to move in decade long trends. the 1970s and 1980s belonged to foriegn, the 1990s domestic and so far in the naughties it has swung back to foreign.
I do not know the history before the 1970's.
Good observation.
I agree that many "investors" do little or no honest legwork to adequately research where they are placing their money.
It is sad, really, that the same individuals who clip grocery coupons out of the weekly paper to save fifty cents will throw fifteen thousand at a stock or eclectic commodity knowing less than nothing about it. Or, even worse, while watching t.v. - believing they have inside information.
I may have seen a different pundit from the one you are describing--I didn't pay attention to the name. but the guy I saw said that much of the performance of foreign markets can be atributed to the fall of the dollar, and that foreign markets, if measured in local currency, have actually underperformed. Is that true? This guy I think took that as a bullish indication that foreign markets are not overvalued.
Some measure of the return (in dollars) is due to the weakness in the greenback but the percentages cited in this post are all in local terms.
A market like France maybe gave more in euro strength than anything else but most of these markets beat SPX by more than was their local currency.
Post a Comment