I'm sure there are more support lines violated than the two I drew on this chart. I still think some portion of this gets corrected but over the next few years there is a good chance that the dollar loses some permanent ground against other currencies.It makes sense for you to spend some time now looking at what has done well through this period so you can learn more about what to own if the above thought turns out to be correct.
Here's a new blog to tell you about, it's called World Beta. It is very new, started this month and is written by someone named Mebane Faber, relative of Dr. Marc or reporter David? I don't know.
The site seems primarily devoted to posts about portfolio construction with ETFs along with dissection of portfolio research. The content has a lot of meat on the bone so you need to roll up your sleeves.
In case you missed it PowerShares is listing another batch of ETFs, only five this go around.
- PowerShares Financial Preferred Portfolio (PGF)
- PowerShares Dynamic Large Cap (PJF)
- PowerShares Dynamic Mid Cap (PJG)
- PowerShares Dynamic Small Cap (PJM)
- PowerShares Value Line Industry Rotation (PYH)
Did you see the David Tice interview this morning? To paraphrase a Seinfeld episode; you know, just managing a bearish fund doesn't have to mean you need to always be bearish.
I have seen and read enough Doug Kass interviews to know there are always stocks to short regardless of what the market is doing. This morning Tice said he can't make a bullish case for stocks as he was calling for a 40% decline. I don't understand this. His opinion can be irrelevant. He's got a fund to sell. His fund is a tool for people that want some downside protection. It seems like he is always calling for a HUGE correction. I'm not sure how anyone can always think the market will can only go in one direction.
6 comments:
World Beta - looks interesting. Good write up on Simple Cross-Market Momentum. The method discussed is very simplistic but the point is made.
I'm amazed how many investors don't use momentum as an equity selection tool given the overwhelming evidence that it works.
World Beta is a great find. Thanks Roger! Tom, momentum investing is considered market timing and that is synonomous with a fool chasing high returns, not to mention a criminal. At least, that is what the rest of the world has come to believe. What happened to George? I miss his splash of cold water.
Anon 10:22, lol
I find it odd that people who practice fundamental analysis don't believe they're practicing "timing". Even Warren Buffett is a timer.
The same goes for dollar cost averaging. Is it not a market timing system?
tomk, perhaps i was misunderstood, i am a timer,or lets say tactical asset allocator, only giving my cynical answer to the question raised. heck, you're the guy with a plan, a repeatable model, and good results. now, that is a good place to be. for real, no cynicism.
Got that right tom k: whether voluntary or forced, short-term or long-term, tactical or strategic, all investing inherently includes timing of some sort.
As to Tice, he frequently talks like a perma-bear and his fund (BEARX) is indeed a bear fund but he also invests based on trends and uses hedges in both directions; it's not a fund I would own since I can do that on my own at less expense but IMHO it's not a bad choice in the current environment for those who lack the asset base and/or are uncomfortable hedging themselves but are interested in a hedge fund type approach as a (modest %) portfolio element.
anon, I caught your cynicism and found it funny. Sorry my reply was misinterpreted.
btw, I have nothing against buy and hold investing - I practice that too! As long as you're focused long term and you can stomach taking big hits from time to time, it works. Less work, low fees, and you never have to worry about missing out on huge upswings.
Post a Comment