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5 comments:
I loose some patience with the sky is going to fall without considering other explanations. The contrarian view gets to be inside hip, and wrong. I'm guilty of it, myself. I prefer your mindset of be prepared and no big bets. BR and his entourage leads to something else, I think. Analyst at citibank, toby l.,no idiot, has recently made an impressive case that fundamentals justify the current market and technically, we just broke out of a multi year base.
Yeah me too. I wish I had not gone into 100% cash back in August.
I made several comments to the Barry thread, my favorite is repeated here:
Here's one for you. Did you realize it's been 793 trading days since we've had a day where the S&P 500 closed up 2.2%? Wow, that's a long time. You might say we're "due" one of those events. After all, if you go back to 1980, such events happened 143 times or about once every 50 trading days (less than a quarter).
We haven't had a monster gainer day since Oct 2003!
That day was separated by only 74 trading days from the previous instance in Jun 2003!
But wait! In April 2003 we had a day that gained 2.6%!
Holy schnikees! March 2003 had THREE days where the index gained 2.3%, 2.6%, and 3.4%!
All in all, 2003 had 8 days with gains over 2.2%. 8 in 252 trading days, about twice a quarter.
And we've gone 793 days without a +2.2% day.
WHERE HAS ALL THE UPWARD VOLATILITY GONE?????
Bill,
Good stuff, numbers always fascinate. I would give those numbers more weight if this rally had been less confounding and smaller in magnitude.
Bill's website is an amazing reflection of interest and ability to absorb information. Goes to show college can slow some guys down.
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