I had my appearance at the Daytrade Team's Live Trading Room earlier and I think it went well, I know I had fun with it. I talked about the Fed's no hike, my thoughts that the Fed might be in a tough spot for a few months even if it wanted to cut due to credibility issues and I answered some questions from Daytrade Team members. They recorded the video so hopefully you can check it out.
I think there will be more appearances in the future.
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2 comments:
Rodger....I'm a long time reader and I don't remember you mentioning the following: what is your time horizon for a "market cycle"; when a theme goes bad when do you cut your losses...Thanks....Jim
part of my thinking in getting defensive when i did and thinking that the market would be down a little for the year, as a predicition, exactly tied into time horizon for market cycles. about four years makes sense. We are at about four years and have many other things going on that usually spell trouble for markets; hence my thoughts.
i don't have hard number or trigger point to make changes. some themes i expect to take years to play out; like water. this year i have made several changes in the portfolio; some good and some bad. When I make those changes I usually give some color as to why.
as far as a stock and when to make a change, typically there is a period where the market re-prices based on new information. After that initial reaction the stock tends to re-trace some. If possible I would want to sell into that retracement on not the initial reaction. This is easier to do when you have 45 stocks instead of ten or 20. Here I am talking about a stock that has gone down a lot and may no longer be a good proxy for its sector or whatever else.
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