I did an interview via email with Stocktickr.com that you can read here if you are so inclined.
The Marketbeat page on the WSJ Online picked up my CNBC rant from earlier today along with similar sentiments from Adam Warner.
I have been mulling my posts from this past weekend about having a big chunk of your portfolio in products that have almost no volatility, no short term correlation to the market but that capture not quite market equaling growth over long periods of time. As a refresher I looked at a couple of ideas that captured about 80% of the market's growth, over a ten year period, with just a small fraction of the market's volatility.
I also mentioned keeping some of the portfolio in some specific growth themes. If I could only have three themes, I have been thinking, what would they be? While I reserve the right to change this ten minutes from now I think China, water and oil sands would be the three most important themes for me for the next ten years.
We'll see if I make to lunch time with those but seriously, thinking about what themes in your portfolio you think are most important for an extended period of time might help you manage emotion in the short term (if you are prone to emotion) when one of them struggles for a while like the way the oil sands have struggled in the last few weeks.
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11 comments:
China in terms of FXI or those areas that will see an increase in demand as a result of China's buildout ( oil, materials, gold )?
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Clients own one of the oil majors, I own FXI. I was thinking that, along with Australia in the context you use.
I do not consider a US company that benefits by selling tractors in China as part of the theme. Those companies will benefit but since they have so many moving parts that China is not usually big enough to make them a proxy for China
Thanks.
I would add biotech as a theme. Advances in Gene therapy will most likely take place over the next 30 years or so.
You may want to add India as one of your main themes for the next 10 years - maybe even replace China with India at least in the near term. India is much less of a US-Export reliant economy and with a greater potential for foreign investors to make money
roger...fxi...been looking for a better entry on that one..nice to have...are clients too leary of a commi stock?
re: oil sands...are you thinking of how to recover oil from the sands of n.america?...and the water theme...can you elaborate?...
my thoughts...uranium... blt in australia may be a good long term prospect...i own vpl...pacific etf by vanguard to cover a piece of this one...hardly a pure play..you may have seen the mauldin letter about uranium...never a down week?
re cnbc, what cable or network station has a stable of journalists about news or whatever? all cheerleaders for something. put an hour together of bloggers, who like yourself are not short on brains or personality,and let them go w/out a host, and cnbc would have the next big idea. my stock in ge would go up
Everyone has their long term investment preferences. If the United States is perceived as a weakening power of democracy,and therefore cannot or will not counter the growing militarism of China coupled with a resurgent un-holy alliance between Russia and non-democratic despots, all bets are off in a much more treacherous world.
Roger,
enjoyed your bringing up MERFX, as I am a long time holder and believer in having large exposure to relatively stable investments.
Would you compare GATEX to the BDX for me. I tried but it appears there's some bad data in my BDX. I seem to have a bunch of outliers. From what I can tell it looks pretty close.
Unlike the closed ends, GATEX has a long track record, and doesn't add the extra volitlity of discounts/premiums.
BDX comes up as Beckton Dickinson. Please let me know with more detail what you are asking for? I assume you are not asking me to compare GATEX to Beckton Dickinson?
sorry, the buy-write index
I meant BXD, too much Merlot, perhaps...
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