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14 comments:
Hey Roger,
Good video, very good summation.
Dog bark always makes it authentic!
Anyone who thinks running money is easy, should give it a whirl first...
You seem to be doing a great job of navigating the compliance, shark-filled waters!
Here's to a great 4th quarter!
Linda P.
PS Do you think your affinity for PHO has anything to do with your volunteer fire work, and your exposure to lots of water? :)
thank you Linda.
I don't think being a volunteer firefighter leads me to water but "these pretzels are making me thirsty;-)"
video summaries get better each week. I really appreciate your honesty and explanation of your portfolio.
You're a calming influence.
Roger--clearly you are getting more comfortable with this medium. Great clip. I'd be interested in your take on the financial sector. I have this 2 part thesis that I developed about 60 days ago (and actively acted on and so far proving wrong from a market performance standpoint!) that (1) the housing/consumer loan effect is going to bite the banks (I see that CNN ran a clip within the last day or so, one always appreciates affirmation of one's thesis) and (2) the market was too ambitious about Fed rate cuts. The therefore is I surmised that we'd see some loan loss reserves tick up over the historical levels as well as continued pressure on net interest. So BAC (consumer exposure through MBNA) and WFC (20% mortgage banking exposure) were two specific targets. Both have performed so strongly and my puts are in the red! I'm not looking for investment advice, but if you have any thoughts on the financial sector over the coming couple of quarters, I'd be interested in your view. (You can also call me a dumba$$ regarding my thesis, but do it nicely!)
Roger,
I missed all the gains for this quarter as I was in mostly cash and ultrashort qqqq. I feel pretty stupid right about now but will not chase the market up.
And to leisa, i hope you bought puts that don't expire this month. I would hold on to them but what do I know.
Leisa,
Barron's also said something similar quoting Stephanie Pomboy.
Most of my financial exposure is in foreign stocks save for Bank of
America; some clients own an asset manager too.
I have been light in the sector for a while as I say visibility to the cycle ending along with it having a persistently heavy weight in the SPX. If add to the sector from here it would be putting the asset manager on for everyone as a demographic play but I have not decided.
The idea you express about loan loss reserves or problems in general seems plausible and I suppose my positioning in part reflects that concern.
You mentioned puts, you may be fundamentally right but it is not clear to me that problems would manifest themselves now. If this is going to happen I would think it would come when the first bank has a real problem.
Roger I think you could do much better with your portfolio if you used some technical analysis. I see way too much pushing of ETFs and investment products from you.
Roger, thanks for your post. Yes, I saw Stephanie's comments, and it brought a smile. I'm only now beginning to see a little more talk about mainline bank exposure. R. Suttmeier on RM has provided some good analysis on credit exposure, but by and large, it appears that there has not been much press (other than the mono-line mortgage lenders which have been trashed). If the prime lenders start to show some hiccups, then I think that it will be like a whiff of smoke in a movie theatre. I'm agreeing with you in that I think that I'm too early to the party.
To Anonymous, my puts are Nov 06 and Jan 07 expirations. (I have a few index puts expiring OCT and DEC). While I'm mostly cash, all other positions are short. My index (DIA/SPY)puts I've had since April. I'm kicking myself for not cashing in during June with a 155% gain. I did sell part of my position, but now I'm under 70%! So I missed out on the gains, too and see the unpleasant red on my screen. I'm holding steadfast, though. I think the Newtonian laws of gravity will have to kick in sooner rather than later. Good luck with your positions.
" I see way too much pushing of ETFs and investment products from you"
LOL *what else does he see?*
I saw read this on SFGate.com and thought I would share:
While conventional wisdom suggests that Wall Street would welcome an end to rate increases, Titus, the Schwab planner, said a survey by Ned Davis Research suggests otherwise.
Since 1920, the Fed has announced 15 times the last in a series of interest rate increases, he said. The median time between the last Fed increase and the next Fed cut has been six months. During that six-month period between Fed rate flip-flops, the Dow has had a median loss of 9.2 percent.
I am a tad baffled by the comment timed at 6:13pm. My results would be better....? TA is kind far down on my list as far as process. Some people are fundamental and some are technical, some people are top down and some are bottom up. There are a whole host of things that could make everyone's portfolio better. You would have done better if you'd have put all your money into your best performing holding.
As far as pushing product, I understand that comment even less. Um lessee, I disclose not owning the ETFs, I say this is just an example and I am giving away the comments I make; so pushing to what end?
The point of this website is to share my process for anyone that cares to read about it.
This comment misses the point of so many things it is humorous.
Hey Roger,
It's definitely getting better, more in focus, you are speaking better and the backlighting helps too.
All in good, good improvement. Keep up the good work!
Jay Walker
The Confused Capitalist
Roger,
A great job. I am still doing the audio podcasting but haven't gotten to video blogging (yet). I have enjoyed watching you develop this site into a terrific resource for invesotors.
Bob
Stock Picks Bob's Advice
thanks Bob and Jay!
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