"In short, we should not be surprised to observe stagflation, falling stocks, weak profits, flat bonds, and a dollar crisis in the months ahead."
This from John Hussman.
Wikinvest Wire
Monday, August 14, 2006
Oof
"In short, we should not be surprised to observe stagflation, falling stocks, weak profits, flat bonds, and a dollar crisis in the months ahead."
This from John Hussman.
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10 comments:
Oof
turns into Proof!
With ALL the negative posts, news, commentary....the market simply will go up.
Because it would be TOO EASY to just read all this negativity and then short the market, get rich, retire....read more negativity...short it again...donate $10 million to your church.....way too easy.
Wake up America!!!
Wall of worry is always valid.
Yup. Time to go all in 100% in some of those double short ETFs.
I'm thinking the market has priced in a recession. Doesn't go down a lot more. S&P could go down 5% more which isn't great but isn't the End Times either. Big dump of everything that had been working was already made in May/June.
Careful with those double-short ETFs, we could be getting a little summer rally here. Don't think it will last that long myself but jumping in short right now could snooker you.
I was kidding. All this gloom and doom might lead one to go all in on double shorts. Which would then be the exact moment we get a nice rally. Then you'd unload your shorts at the top of the rally, go long, and then a leg down. Which is why I'm not a trader.
I think the rest of the year is a slow grind down a little but you can make a little money in the right spots. Some of the gloom is getting laid on a bit thick.
With all the blogging etc, the contrarian tea leaves will have to be read differently. Certainly, not sure how. Traders must love the volatility.Me, no where nimble enough to make money. Weekly and monthly price charts may prove to more reliable. As someone posted, how do we know that all those negative yakkers really have large cash positions? Yakking may have more to do with counterpoint talk in demand by cnbc et al. Just marketable content with no substance. Is there a reliable source for what institutional mngrs are doing? For us regular joe retailers, if you made money earlier in the year and protected profits there are a lot months left at over 5% m.mkt interest. It will take a lot to get some of us to join in on a rally. Better keep some poweder dry in the event of a really good opportunity.
Roger, Nice article you wrote on FDV. It's too rare that your colleagues use higher level thinking when doing financial reporting: a real critique and not just an announcement. You mention thin volume trading. Many etfs do have thin volume. As long as the bid ask spread is not too great, where ver that point is?, should this inhibit an investment..and if so, why?Thanks again for the above average finacial reporting. Nice to think that someone is on the side of the diy investor.
I like the FDV.
Was there ever a time when Hussman was not "fully hedged"?
RE Hussman
Short answer I am not sure.
Longer answer, in looking the perf chart on Morningstar it seems like he has had some amount of hedge the whole time but that is a guess and offers no idea about the magnitude of hedging.
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