I started a generic portfolio (it represents the equity portion only) on Yahoo Finance with $1 million on Jan 1, 2005 using 12/31/2004 closing prices as the starting point. I have referenced this generic portfolio countless times on this blog. Since then I have manually entered all the trades and dividends and while I can't guarantee having accounted for every single dividend the trades are accurate and representative. Some client accounts have done better and some have done worse.
On 12/31/2005 that portfolio stood at $1,135,000 (I have rounded off--I did not think to capture a screen shot back then). Up 11.3% was a slight outperformance.
This first image, $1,195,851.00, was the value of the generic portfolio on 3/31/2006.
The second image, $1,201,198.25, is from June 30, 2006.
The third image, $1,193,216.50, is from Friday's close. Generically the portfolio is up $58,000 or 5.1%. Actually it is a little more. I have not added in any dividends for July yet and ANZ, for one, just paid a $2.07 dividend on Thursday which would add another $693.
I don't really care whether the reader in question believes this or not but the numbers will make sense to long time readers. Obviously a big chunk of the YTD number has been dividends. Also I have been generally raising cash for three months and I was lucky enough to be heavy in energy, emerging markets and materials earlier in the year.
I am pleased with the year so far but really the results aren't spectacular. The I don't believe line of thought, I'm sorry to say it so bluntly, is just a waste of time and effort. However you have done thus far, hopefully you are learning more to become a better investor. That is what is important. I have learned to have a lot more respect for the consequences triggered by the end of Japan's ZIRP. This has been the biggest lesson for me by far.
8 comments:
Well Roger, if it will help this reader, I chronicled every single trade I did for the SINLetter model portfolio from January 2006 through July 2006 in each of my newsletters and am up 31.92% for 2006 as of last Friday. This was achieved with almost 100% exposure to equities (I do not believe in timing the market) and without taking dividends into account.
The reader who lost money and can't believe others have not is obviously in a lot of pain, has a coping problem, and resorts to reconstruction of reality to protect his self worth. Please, I hope we can leave it at that without a litany of who has made how much money. No learning in that. Until I think otherwise, Roger has already established his integrity and candor. Roger....I would like to ask, how much cash do you have on hand and your comfort level with the percentage, given that no one can predict the future? In real time you are dealing with the myriad of world economic problems. Thanks.
My intention was not mine is bigger than yours.
I have more cash raised than normal, this is important before I say the number. A big concern for me is a problem with demand for equities, or at least my perception of demand.
I was about 20% cash but I spent 4%-ish buying SDS which reduced next exposure.
I need to disclaim that some more conservative accounts, that were positioned less aggressively have sold less stock.
There are also a few folks that have more cash than 20% as well. Please keep in mind that like you, any given client may have unique circumstances that lead to the account looking a little different.
That was not my intention either. I wanted to reaffirm Roger's observation that it is possible to be up in a down market and that I think the Efficient Market Hypothesis is hogwash.
Mary Ann Bartels of ML believes that we are in a short term correction for the broad market of 15-20% and about 30% for Nas. She feels all sectors will decline with the recent leaders likely to lead the way down. This report generated on 7/14 didn't take into account the recent Israel/Lebanon/Syria/Iran conflict. I am as defensive as I can recall ever being with not much long exposure to the equity markets. Will the stuff going on in Israel blow over? Of course. When? God only knows. I got snake bit in 2000-2002 so bad that I realized that I didn't have a clue what I was doing or why. That pain has led to use some professional help (ML & JMP) and to pursue less(not all) of my own ideas. Finding out that I was the problem in 2000-02 not the internet bubble, or the attack on New York has helped me to better shape my decisions now. Tom in Indy
Up 11.8% YTD. Nothing special, just hit stops in emerging markets and small cap forcing an exit in Mid April and early May. Currently long only 15% waiting for a entry point. Rodger what is does the picture look like when we find a bottom in a small correction like we have had? Is it a quiet time and the averages just seem to walk forward, or is a loud event?
Casper,
Think about 1997, 1998, 2001, the rally of 2002 (there was one believe it or not).
The news was quiet the move was loud, to use your words. The way I have described this on the blog is that markets turn for no reason at all when no one expects and the move is big and fast.
IMO a turn for no reason at all is easier to see but the magnitude would be more difficult to assess ahead of time.
I write about this in terms of not wanting to be completely left behind in a big fast rally. Lag is OK if that is how it pans out but missing completely, no.
ROGER...ROGER...ROGER,
I am saying the maket has been killed in the last 3 months - Nasdaq down 15% or so and Dow down 10%. The NORMAL everyday investor or the normal 401K account ius down 10% to 15% from the highs that happened in March/April. It is a simple remark that is 100% accurate. Warren Buffet says he is down for the last 1/4 on his picks YET Roger says he is a ahead of the world. That is whwere IU am goming from. Roger gas no picks to replave anthing. He does say keep 5% in Foreigh then explains how he makes customers money with their 15% portfolios in Freign. The market is for long players. VERY few short guys make money in theor life tim unless they are Psyhic! That is the truth. Sit and don't want. Unless another 911 the market will be up in 5 years and I think in a broad sense that is what matters. I don't care that one of the minions says he made 30% for 6 mths. Their is no way with the bath the markets has taken in the last 3 months that that man is still up 30%. People play with #'s. This market is not making millionaires.How's that for not hiding beyond vague comments and gestures. A, honest opinion.
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