A reader asked whether I shouldn't be out of foreign stocks based on the indicators I use.
I am coming out of one name this morning. I sold a little in the premarket and will finish during the day.
The market has had a couple of false positives with the 200 DMA in the last two years and this may turn out to be another one. I am not worried about the portfolio being down a little, actually it is still up for the year coming into the day.
If this is a bear market, it will start slowly. I am not concerned about the decline from the high to this point if the SPX is on the way to being down 25%-30%.
This feels like it is a bear market starting but since I can't be sure I am in no hurry. Further I reduced some foreign already. Those sales with what I am selling today could look very wrong in six months. I don't care about looking wrong but I do not want to make a swift, extreme, all at once repositioning either.
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7 comments:
Thank you for answering the question. You said: "This feels like it is a bear market starting but since I can't be sure I am in no hurry."
I feel a bear market coming, too, and I have written a lot about it on my blog (www.movethemarkets.blogspot.com). But how would you deal with a situation in which you reach your bear targets in a much shorter time than anticipated? My conclusion is that it might get even more bloody in autumn because of there is too much damage done for a too short time.
selling now???? you should have sold a month and 15% higher ago.
Amateur move.
thanks SAN.
To Anon, I started selling in late April, sold a little more in mid may, sold a tad more last week and sold one name this morning, all of which I have detailed in past posts.
Bear market? Correction?
We will not know for sure for a little while yet.
I still think we get a bounce here. Even if we go down further later this year. This does not seem the time to sell. Actually I placed an order to buy - even if I am now down for the year.
to the most recent comment, very fair point.
The bottom could be today for all anyone know.
If it were that easy, everybody would be doing it.
g
everybody portfolio manager I know is saying that there will come a bounce...they are all waiting to unload then. That's why we don't get the bounce.
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