I am at our office in Phoenix so I don't have TiVo (so I can't get his name) but they just had one of the crew from Fifth Third on saying that the rally at the end of the day was encouraging.
He was interviewed from his trading floor so had to know what was going on.
Being optimistic right here may be the right call but I think it is tough to take a lot of positives from the late action today.
9 comments:
Well the rally didn't really last and we sold off again. I love the prices and how cheap some stocks are, but charts and other technical indicators look ugly. I think we are 1-2% above the bottom here and will consolidate at these levels for a couple of months - Bought some more large cap techs myself. Too cheap to pass up!
-- Faisal Laljee
At this point Barry Ritholz's "bounce, test, bounce, crash" scenario (http://tinyurl.com/s7tt9) seems to be holding up fairly well; he also points out that the recent fall-off in emerging markets needs to be placed in a longer-term context (http://tinyurl.com/lo5mu).
Personally I've already made adjustments I deem prudent and am neither a buyer nor seller here; a number of analyses, including John Hussman's (e.g., http://tinyurl.com/hzg3g), confirm my conviction that long-term trends will eventually pay out but that patience and cash remain virtues not to be neglected.
OTOH if someone concocted an ETF that tracked a credible global 'food' index (from genomics to production) I might buy that so I could add it to PHO and fill out my "what 6+ billion people absolutely gotta have" macro trend.
Good idea. A good food/agriculture stock is almost as hard to find as a good water stock.
Roger and everyone??,
REAL question. I own funds that have been killed in the last few weeks, as has everyone, BUT some of them like my Latin America, Russian and Emerging Market funds {All rated 5 stars} are down almost 20% in those few weeks. Is their a end in sight??? Why are these markets getting killed more then domestic? I am down 8% or so domestically, but nothing like what has happened with foreign. Thoughts and ideas???? Do I hold on all the Foreign funds or sell into the panic {which I know is stupid unless it keeps getting smashed}?
I just got back from sailing. Anything interesting happen while I was out?
Fred
Dear Fred, That depends. How long were you gone?
Roger and everyone??,
REAL question. I own funds that have been killed in the last few weeks, as has everyone, BUT some of them like my Latin America, Russian and Emerging Market funds {All rated 5 stars} are down almost 20% in those few weeks. Is their a end in sight??? Why are these markets getting killed more then domestic? I am down 8% or so domestically, but nothing like what has happened with foreign. Thoughts and ideas???? Do I hold on all the Foreign funds or sell into the panic {which I know is stupid unless it keeps getting smashed}?
YTD the Vanguard Emerging Mkts fund is still up 6.7%, despite a 20% drop recently. If you liked the valuations of EM 20% higher, I hope you like them better now; selling would be foolish if it's a small part of your portfolio. If you bought it 20% higher based on momentum only, you should have sold it a week ago.
A 20% move in EM is historically not very unusual; if it can go up 25% in 3 months you've got to assume the same can happen in the other direction.
buy and hold strategies beat actual investors because by definition they can not be paniced by sell offs. Actual investors panic and sell low and buy back in at higher levels.
I am not saying never sell. I do believe there are only one to 4 times a decade there are obvious times to sell. Is this one of those few a decade?
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