Based on reader comments or lack thereof, it is possible that I am not the single dumbest currency commentator on the planet but I feel like I have a lot to learn and am asking for your help.
If you are aware of any sites that have what you think is good currency commentary please let me know. I am not so much looking to make 4 pips in a couple of hours but more looking to read about current economic events in various countries and what that might to do the currency.
I am aware of and read a couple of sites along these lines. In no particular order;
- Dismally, as it relates to the markets
- Jyske Bank Capital Markets
- Bloomberg
- Everbank Daily Pfennig email
- Nicole Elliott's weekly market commentary
- Marc Chandler on RealMoney.com (sub required)
I also read stray articles from the WSJ, FT and other sites as I find the content or as readers pass along what they find. There may be a couple of other sites I am forgetting to mention, I don't intend to slight anyone with this post.
Collectively we might learn about some great new sites. Thank you.
12 comments:
I love your blog, but currencies are one area you seem to get into a traders attitude. Your investing philosophy is mostly well balanced grow rich slowly approach (very smart).
When it comes to foreign investment you seem to want to optimize on a hot currency. I do agree with you that currencies will become more important in the future, but I suggest you step back and do less analysis. I really think less is more in this case.
Simply step back and say currency A will be stronger in the future because of increased manufacturing growth or increased raw material costs or what ever. I also think this approach would align with your strengths as an investor.
Increased analysis of foreign currency information is for traders and you just do not strike me as a trader. I think you are smarter than that.
Forexnews.com has a good review in the pm and forecast in the am. You probably already get it, but just in case... It also has a free newsletter you can get these forecasts emailed to you from. Today's is pretty good.
I have been reading your blog for some time. I suppose currencies could become hot, but it seems to me there are many more interesting things; like PHO, which you wrote about a few months ago. In our commidity hungry world, that assest, seems to be the most (at least to me) interesting and lucrative. I must admit it is also very volatile.
http://www.worldinformation.com/ is a site that gives good information on all major countries. I use it often. Ususally the region overview will give a good history of the currencies, as well as the climate of each currency.
Dabbler
http://geocities.com/will_dabbler/index.html
I like the analysis here:
http://www.fx-concepts.com/investment_mir.html
This is probably more macro than you have in mind, but Stephen Jen's occasional column at morgan stanley's econ page:
www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html
Also Brad Setser's blog
www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser
I recommend Global Investor http://www.globalinvestor.com/
It gets better every year and is as close to a "one stop" world investing site as I've been able to find.
RW
I trade proprietary FX at a bank. In my experience the words of a previous post rings very true -- less is more. When looking at various sources of commentary, the more convoluted and arcane the evidence given to support a viewpoint, the more often I find it to be wrong. KISS works best. Looking at the big picture via charts and relative interest rate differentials will get you a lot of value for a little effort.
Roger, thanks for the nod on your site (And many that I get from you).
I have a blogroll on my site that you might want to check out. But, a lot of the currency trading blogs out there are more short-term focused. That might not be what you're looking for.
You can find my blogroll at:
http://del.icio.us/dismally
Over half of these are currency blogs. The other half, including yours, you'll quickly recognize as the leaders in finance/economics blogs.
Also, you are very keyed in on the Aussie and Kiwi lately. These are two currencies that I've not really touched on lately. They've been so rangebound that it makes it tough to call.
Two people I read in the FT every Tuesday -
John Dizard, who makes a number of international and credit coments,
and
James Altucher, who runs a fund of hedge funds.
Both are well informed, deep cynical about conventional wisdom without being perma-bears, and provide useful information.
I don't think trading currencies directly is something that most investors want to participate in.
I think the best way to play the currency game is to hold ETF's that collect dividends from foreign companies. EFV and PID come to mind.
What would definitely fill a niche is an EFA investment grade bond fund which would give investors exposure to the world bond market and slightly higher interest rates than in the US.
"understanding currencies will become more and more important over the next few years"
Why is understanding currencies important for the investor? and why will it become more important now? more important, then say, in the last 100 years.
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