Every theme I am overweight is getting pasted today. Boo friggin hoo, that just goes with the territory.
I have devoted a lot of time to training myself to never get too worked up by this type of day, it serves no purpose. I attribute my ability to shrug this off to my yoga practice. Hopefully you can shrug bad days off too.
On a different note did you see that Ed Keon reduced his equity weight from 100% down to 55%?
I can't recall Mr. Keon being correct very often. I do not know if this call he is making represents a change in his very bullish outlook for 2006. I did not know his model portfolio was at 100% in equities. 100% might be right a given individual but I seriously doubt it is the proper allocation for the client base of a major brokerage firm.
Going from 100% down to 55% all at once is a drastic move for several reasons. First trying to time a top, which I view this type of reduction as an attempt to do, is probably not what a 50 year old looking to retire a couple of years early needs to do. Another point is that executing big changes is problematic for the client on several levels.
Lastly, there is no practical way that a successful broker at the firm could take Mr. Keon's advice, assuming he wanted to, because there are too many clients to get in touch with and execute the trades suggested in a timely manner. Further, since most brokers have client money placed with managers, there is yet another layer of work needed to comply with the recommendation.
I have been baffled my Mr. Keon's opinions and process on more than one occasion so this is nothing new.
Wikinvest Wire
3 comments:
It’s not pretty. Most of these markets have had great run-ups so a correction is not unexpected but some of the commodities markets look more like the Gnomes have decided to take a break from beating up the shorts and are now after the weaker long hands.
But growing geopolitical risk and a weakening US economy complicate the picture too much for a clear read. If the wind is really changing I’ll tack and go with it but for now this is a gust and the course is set where it is: Overweighted in commodities, select international equity markets and short-duration high-quality debt/cash, underweighted (or no weight) in just about everything else.
FWIW
RW
PS: Calls like Ed Keon’s do bring out the cynic in one. If he’s right then he can say he called the turn even if no one had the time to follow the advice; if he’s wrong it will be forgotten in time.
you are 100% right about the consequences of the call.
Point taken (g)
A lot of banging around going on in markets worldwide; oil and gold were just the beginning. The sectors and regions that snap back (and those that don’t) may clarify the picture somewhat but it certainly looks like it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
RW
Post a Comment