I had a few comments left today that I'll start with. Someone asked for details about Austria. For now I need to tell you to check the archives on that. I think I am about to have something published elsewhere about Austria. If that works out I'll let you know.
55% equities seems low to me too, for most folks. If everyone in your family makes it past 90 and you are 60, you need a heavy weighting in equities. Not everyone in that situation can emotionally handle a lot of equities but that doesn't change the reality. Generally speaking the cost of most items goes up about 50% in price every ten years. The postage stamp captures this idea very well. 60% bonds does not give you much of a chance to keep up.
As for my wife hating CNBC, she really used to hate CNBC Asia. Now that I am a regular on the channel she tells people to watch.
One comment believes that we have a recession and bear market in the making and he has cash built up and thinking about shorting the market. He also sold stocks in his 401k. I would ask what is the catalyst to get that bearish? I would rather rely on a simple message from the market to take that type of action. Gut feeling alone makes the play quite risky.
The Japan story is a little lost on me for several reasons but I may be wrong.
I was pleased and impressed with the market on Monday. I would not be shocked if the market went down a little more for the week but it seems like a Katrina induced panic is off the table.
Here is a fun little nugget that I may be the last to know about; OPEC member Indonesia is a net importer of oil. Oops.
Wikinvest Wire
1 comments:
Roger,
Not a gut feeling at all. The yield curve is nearly inverted, economic growth has been fueled by housing (which in my home state of Virginia is a HUGE asset bubble) and oil is hitting the point where consumers are spending less & less. The account deficit must also be dealt with and it can only be settled by devaluing our currency.
On top of that, we're engaged in a prolonged military action abroad and aren't certain what the outcome of that will be yet.
Just out of curiosity, are you bullish for the next few years? I keep an open mind with all things
related to my pocket book - why are you bullish (assuming that you are)?
What will drive economic growth once housing settles down?
Why will a yield curve inversion not precede a recession this time (if you research Greenspan's comments, he discounts inversion every time!).
My 401k is in short-term bonds & i-bonds. My fidelity account (roth ira + brokerage account) is
split between a bet against the dollar (LSGBX) & cash. Eventually I'll move that cash into BEARX.
Is this risky? You know, I'll have to wait and see. I'm in real estate and I see what the growth has done, I see 1st hand the damage being done.
I tell people not to buy more expensive homes (i have a conscience!) but my sense is that many of these people will be filing for bankruptcy in a year or so because they won't be able to flip.
For the record, I'm not a perma-bear! I was long the market all of the 90's until 1999. In 2001 I was moderately hopeful and have become increasingly bearish since 2003.
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