Wikinvest Wire
Tuesday, May 10, 2005
Murray Twins
Does anyone think these guys add any value? There are so many smart people out there willing to give real insight and share process. This can't be a ratings thing. People watch stock market television or they don't.
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5 comments:
I agree. Most of what these guys aren't worth listening to and are just pushing their own agendas.
I got out of my index short positions on 4/29 and went long some stocks but have lightened up on those too now. There is a lot of overhead resistance and I'm not willing to see if we get thru it on the first pass.
If we can break thru, we get a summer rally. If not, back to the grind, IMO.
What astonishes me on these talking heads is that they never post their track record on picks. I heard that Cramer on CNBC recommended ERTS after it dumped the first time. If you want to lose money, he's your man!
great stuff
CNBC has made stagflation the "hot topic" and having twins on both sides is about ratings. As always, folks should not fear the beast that has been identified.
The last beast was higher long-term rates. The risk is much higher now that another beast is being whipped. Nominal GNP is growing at around 6.2% with real GNP at better than 3%; what stagflation?
To clarify my previous comment, I looked up the recent numbers. The real GDP for the last three months was 3.1% and the GNP Deflator was 3.2%, making a total nominal rate of 6.3%. Using year over year figures, the numbers read 2.5% and 3.6%. The annual nominal GDP growth is 6.1%.
Stagflation is slow economic growth, relatively high unemployment and high inflation. We do not have this situation. Short interest rates are catching inflation and unemployment is low.
The numbers have moved to slightly slower growth and slightly higher inflation but part of this inflation is the increase in interest rates used to slow down the economy and the inflation rate. Once neutral is reached the FOMC will cease raising the rates.
The bubble of metals prices and other commodities is largely over. Now the FOMC is tightening only to try to cool down the housing market that is still on fire.
The FOMC is running out of room as the higher rates are slowing the manufacturing economy; maybe one or two more quarter points is all the room left.
From 1974 to 1980, rising rates could not catch inflation; now that was a time of staglation; negative real rates for about 6 years in a row.
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