Wikinvest Wire

Tuesday, March 22, 2005

GULP!

Two things tonight.

Most markets continued to erode today after taking in a rougher than expected Fed announcement. The path of least resistance is down for now. The market is oversold but could become more oversold before it goes back up. This is a tough market to stay ahead of, pros and individuals alike are feeling this so don't let emotion carry you away.

I had a comment left by Stephen from Public Mutual Fund as follows:

Tell me about it, the market sucks lately. It's bad enough when my portfolio goes down, but I can see how it can be a real headache to actively manage OPM. That's a lot of portfolios.

The market has good periods and bad periods, that's how it works. Fortunately I don't have headaches ever with the market. This is how the market works. Once you resign yourself to the fact that volatility is part of the deal it will be easier to accept that good stocks might go down if the market goes down.

I have mentioned before that most of my clients own Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). There is nothing that has occurred in this last selloff that leads me to a different conclusion about JNJ. If I still owned AIG or GM (two names I have never owned) I would have to wonder about keeping them. There is visibility for negative changes to continue. Long time readers will know I have been bearish on AIG for many months.

Times like these often cause people to trade their accounts too much. If your trigger point to get defensive has already come, you should be disciplined enough to stick to your plan. If you have no plan, get one. I believe no plan is what causes buying high and selling low.

On a personal note I finished one class today at the Arizona Wildfire Academy and much to my shock I aced the final test. Tomorrow starts a two day class called Engine Boss. If you live in the southwest and are so inclined the academy can always use donations. I have no affiliation other than I am a student every year.

2 comments:

Arda said...

Given the bloodbath in GM bonds, I think their very short-term notes offer an interesting cash alternative. GMAC 6.75% notes due Jan. 2006 now yields about 6.5%. Will the company go into bankruptcy over the next 9 months with about $50bn in cash and $75 unused credit line?

Roger Nusbaum said...

Probably not, regarding bankruptcy in the next 9 months. Thanks

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