Better Lucky Than Good

Turkish markets fall on emerging market worries

I have been enamored with Turkey for a while. I was lucky enough to catch the last run up and sold the Turkish Fund (TKF) right around $20. The Turkish market and the fund are getting smacked and the article linked above talks about why.

I did not replace TKF with another emerging market stock or fund. It seemed like all of the emerging markets had a big run. I told a couple of clients, when we sold TKF, that we might get a chance to get back in later. I was not expecting this kind of move all at once. Maybe not at all, in terms of magnitude.

My emerging market exposure is less than what it was but I still have some. The group feels heavy right now but will turn up at some point. I don't want to bet client money that I can nail the turnaround. If good things happen before I add more names, clients still get some benefit.

All in an effort to get more decisions right than wrong.