Wikinvest Wire

Thursday, February 17, 2005

Reader Comment

Sometime last night a reader left an anonymous comment on a very old post. I want to let everyone see the comment and I will try to respond. If I just posted back to the comment no one would see it. First here is the link to the post if you want to read it. Here is the comment;

I find your comment rather arrogant. While I agree that the fees on a mutual fund wrap can be expensive, that does not mean investing in active funds is all that bad. I am sure I could find plenty of open ended funds that have produced higher returns with less standard deviation than your record as an investment mgr. what is your record? Net of fees? Most investors do not have the stomach to invest in concentrated portfolios, they sell low because of fear. And ETFs are index funds, which are the epitome of momentum style investing. The s&p 500 weights whatever is working at the time. If you invested in a SPX etf in March of 2000, you were a fool and bought tons of stocks at bubble prices. Indexing cares nothing about price of a security, it just cares about the mkt cap of the company.

First, if the reader finds the post arrogant I say fair game. I try to share very specific opinions here and while I don't intend to be arrogant, his perception is his reality. He then says he could find plenty of funds that have better records than me. I bet he's right. I don't think I've ever pounded my chest boasting about track record. My benchmark is the S+P 500 I beat about 60% of the time on a quarterly basis. I have said countless times that most managers will both beat and lag the market as time goes on and that I am no different. Where I think I add the most value to clients is having the discipline to stick to the exit strategy I have written about too many times, this was a big help last summer.

The reader says most investors don't have the stomach for concentrated portfolios. I think we agree on this unless he thinks 40 stocks is concentrated.

He also says most investors sell at the wrong time due to fear. That is true. One purpose of this blog is to share what I've got to try to empower individuals to not make this kind of mistake. The market tends to work in a certain way and I try to share my take on how it works. This may not ensure perpetual outperformance but might reduce the instances of emotional mistakes, at least I hope so.

He next says indexing is a bad idea. I have never espoused a Boglesque (I think I just invented a word) blind devotion to indexing. Index funds like anything else are one tool, of many, available to us. The only broad index funds I use are for clients who ask us for ideas for something like a education account or some other small account, but they don't play a role in accounts that I actively manage. The article to which this person posted lays out more specifics on this topic.

In closing I would doubt this reader really understands what this blog is all about. I am still trying to figure if he is in favor of wrap accounts. I will also say, that while I think the reader has missed the point of almost everything I am trying to do here, this is what makes the blogosphere so potentially useful. The reader, I think, is trying to hold me accountable for my opinion. I feel a sense of accountability and responsibility. The primary goal is to share my process. Readers take a little from me, and a little from others and make their own process.

6 comments:

stephen said...

Well, I think one of the biggest values of a financial planner or portfolio manager is to save people from themselves. Sure, there's a cost to their services, but a lot of people would be better off not investing their own money. Maybe the quality of a professional planner can be measured by what they did at the peak of the bubble.

simply gold said...

Roger, I think it is just a difference in style. Large financial conglomerates like to feed the people fish, while you teach them to fish. I prefer your style.

Roger Nusbaum said...

LMAO

At one of my stops along the way, in dealing with people we worked with a buddy and I would sometimes say "here have a fish."

david bennett said...

Roger:

I don't find your approach particularly arrogant. You express uncertainties.

Maybe I'm missing something but I thought you suggested the use of ETFs as a way of diversifying and chose sectors without high fees for the investment. Certainly 1 1/2% on top of 1 1/2% does present a problem.

I don't think asking someone who is payed to manage an account why they are paying someone a similar fee (out of the customers kitty) is arrogant. I don't believe you criticized managed funds just layers of management. There has to be another method of allocation.

You are however going to get a lot of sensitivity here. If there seems to be one theme that financial blogs agree on it's that much of the financial industry is a hustle and if there is one shared goal it is to liberate tens perhaps hundreds of billions by more efficient methods which reduce the costs to the people. This is threatening.

Not simply to those who are getting the money, but to those who have bought and emotionally invested.

The problem you point out is fairly obvious to anyone who has junio high math. Yes you pay me 1 1/2% of savings to manage your money and I'll pay another 1 1/2% to someone to do it and they might pay...

It's all very nice for us to get together with those comforting father and mother figuires and have that "quiet conversation" but suggesting that we look at the numbers before risking isn't arrogance it's trusting that people can at least exercise minimal judgement in making their *own* decisions.

Roger Nusbaum said...

David,

Thank you for the kind word.

david bennett said...

Actually Roger my comments are not particularly "kind." They are an objective opinion.

On the "arrogance" issue you do a good job of framing your text in a "I'm not completely sure, but this is what I think and why" context. This is difficult to do and whileexperienced readers know that opinions are often expressed more forcefully than they should be, it's good to have writing that reminds people that "experts" are making educaated guesses, that there is no absolute guaranteed authority.

As for the critique of your investment strategy even a quick reading will show that if you were to advise the individual dropping a hundred a month into Vanguard (not necessarily a bad strategy in my opinion) who only wanted to spend 10 miniutes thinking about these things, I suspect you would suggest that they diversify into several other funds besides the SPX including the International. The critique of your method is false.

As for costs, due to the miracle of compounded interest if one put some money into a fund with management costs at 3% then at the end of 25 years there would be half as much money as if there were no management costs. How much advice and guidance is worth to increase returns and reduce stress is an uncertain thing, but people are programmed to look at these relatively small numbers and think them trivial. They add up.

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