Green Gate Fire

The following was sent out to the Walker community about our most recent incident;

Shortly after midnight on May 22 Walker Fire was dispatched to a wildfire subsequently named the Green Gate Fire. It was located just off of Big Bug Mesa Rd a little ways past Amulet Mine Rd.
The fire was approximately five acres over extremely steep terrain that was heavily forested and had a lot of dead and down inside the fireline.
We received help from several Prescott National Forest hot shot crews and Central Yavapai lent us a water tender.
We had 14 Walker firefighters on scene who engaged in tasks ranging from line construction, pumping water up to the head of the fire, shuttling water tenders and mopping up. Included in the 14 were four firefighters who drove up from Phoenix in the middle of the night to help. For several of our crew this was a 12-16 hour day of fighting fire.
We were also involved with more mop up work on Thursday. 

Hopefully the one picture looking up at the truck creates some understanding how how steep this was. The fire was almost five acres but the elevation gain was close to 200 feet (6774 feet up to 6990 feet). 

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Marc Faber Quote

Faber:

In the 40 years I've been working as an economist and investor, I have never seen such a disconnect between the asset market and the economic reality ... Asset markets are in the sky and the economy of the ordinary people is in the dumps, where their real incomes adjusted for inflation are going down and asset markets are going up.

This is not my attempt to predict any sort of event or time table for an event but I do believe in awareness of the current environment and I think this quote articulates it well.
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Alan Abelson

Alan Abelson has died. He was 87 years old. He started writing his column for Barron's in 1966 and kept writing up until a couple of months ago when he went on leave. I have nothing profound here other than to note that like many, I've been reading him for my entire professional career which goes back to the late 1980's.

If ever a person was a Wall Street institution it was him. When speculation that something was wrong with his health first popped up in the comments of columns where Randy Forsyth was filling in for him, one reader noted that he was born in 1925. I'd figured he was in his 70s but obviously not.

He made a great contribution to many people.
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Hoot Owl Fire

On Sunday May 5th, Walker Fire was dispatched to a wildfire on Hoot
Owl Rd which could be described as being between Potato Patch and
Mountain Pine Acres. The fire was only about 1/2 an acre but was made
complex by the steepness of the terrain, the extent to which there was
a combination of dead and down and stacked wood piles inside the fire
line, the close proximity of a house, the even closer proximity of an
out-building of sorts, the incredibly thick over-grown forest, the
inability for every vehicle to get to the scene (road condition,
steepness and narrowness) and that the road was very narrow and
appeared to dead end.

Walker Engine 86 was first on scene and assumed command of the
incident. Other Walker vehicles participating were Patrol 85, Patrol
80. Patrol 84, Tender 81 and Rescue 81 (in case someone got hurt). In
all there were 13 firefighters from Walker. Additionally we had
outside help from a Forest Service engine, a Forest Service command
vehicle, a Type 6 engine from Groom Greek, a Water Tender from Groom
Creek and a command vehicle from AZ State Forestry Division.

Tactically, Engine 86 and the Forest Service engine were positioned
for the most direct attack. The water tenders could not get to the
scene because of the road so Patrol 85 shuttled water from the water
tenders staging area up to the incident to refill the engines. The
crews from Patrols 84 and 80 constructed the fire line along with
Forest Service and Groom Creek personnel.
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Luskin Take Down

A very funny post where Barry Ritholtz chronicles the vast history of big calls by Donald Luskin. Here is just one, click through to read the whole thing.

This is not the first time The Donald has been so completely and utterly wrong. In November 2007, he told us there were 11 Reasons to Buy Stocks Now. That was a  month after the market peak, and the start of a nauseating 18 month slide in equities. If you followed Luskin’s advice, it took you 6 years to merely get back to break even. (He liked Citigroup then, which has since fallen 90%).

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Trade Executed

We bought Blackrock (BLK) for most large accounts last Thursday. We have obviously been underweight US financials for years and while we are in no hurry to make a meaningful commitment to US banks there are other companies in the sector that are fundamentally sound. Blackrock is a buyside money manager and of course owns iShares. Demand for investment management from delegaters is likely to grow as is demand for investment products from do-it-yourselfers who want ETFs, iShares of course is the largest ETF provider.

As an administrative note, for the time being there will be fewer posts but I will continue to disclose trades and will have the occasional post perhaps pointing to something I found interesting or funny.
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Taleb Go Boom

A very fun read about the most recent Nassim Taleb Twitter-War that all started with the following;

Click here for the rest, it really is a hoot.
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And That's All I Have To Say About That

A big reason for maintaining this blog has been to try to help anyone interested to become a little more knowledgeable in terms for market cycles, portfolio construction, product evolution, retirement planning and a bunch of other things.  Along the way I have benefited too having been able to do things I would not have otherwise been able to do, meet people I would not have otherwise met and it has helped our business some as well.

One idea that I have addressed a few times before is that in a massive bull market there is a whole lot less for an active manager to do other than to just try to go along for the ride. If there is less to do then there must be less to say (or write about).

The market is blowing off as Fed policy is working to inflate asset prices. Typically the term blow off in this context implies the up move will end soon but I am not sure that applies now unless the Fed were to announce it was stopping its treasury purchases and was raising rates. That probably won't be happening anytime soon.

In this environment it is important to have exposure, capture at least a decent portion of the lift while remaining disciplined to whatever it is you believe its right for your investment objective and without chasing anything. It is a delicate balance but that is was the last couple of years has been about.

For the time being there will be less blogging. This is not the end of the blog and it does not mean no posting, just fewer posts. At some point there will be more work to do in terms looking for when the next bear market starts and what to do when that time comes. In the mean time there will be the occasional market related post, the occasional fun post like the one last night with that crazy fire apparatus and I will continue to disclose any executed trades.

I obviously owe a big thank you to everyone who has read the site and contributed to its longevity and when the policy of overt asset price manipulation ends then regular blogging will resume, maybe a little sooner.
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